Contract Bridge

A crucial decision

How to play a particular suit combination is governed not only by the composition of the suit itself but also by the reality of what will give you the best chance to make the contract.

Take this typical case where declarer is faced with a crucial guess in trumps. West leads a club, ruffed by South.

There is no good reason not to draw trumps, so South leads a low spade to the queen, losing to East’s ace.

Back comes a club, and after ruffing, South leads a heart to dummy’s queen and returns a trump. When East produces the eight, declarer has to decide whether to play the ten or the king.

Ordinarily, he would play the king, because mathematically there is a slight advantage in playing for the jack to fall. But in this deal, South should play the ten, because doing so assures the contract, while playing the king jeopardizes it.

If the ten wins (because East has the jack), declarer cashes the king and loses at most two diamond tricks to make the contract.

If the ten loses (because West has the jack), South still has the situation firmly under control. Whatever West returns, declarer eventually can cash the A-K-J of hearts and discard three diamonds from dummy. He thus loses only a diamond to the ace, ruffing his third diamond in dummy to avoid a second loser in the suit.

Note that if in the actual deal South plays the spade king instead of the ten at trick five, he goes down. When East gains the lead with the ace of diamonds, he cashes the jack of spades, removing dummy’s last trump, and declarer winds up losing two diamonds and two spades to go down one.