Push for 100% storage, toward a cliff

The front page headline “Study: 100% renewable energy by 2060” in the Feb. 7 Timescall could lead one to think that a major breakthrough in storage technology had been made, which could make 100% renewable energy possible. But instead, the study simply concluded that utility companies nationwide are moving faster toward decarbonizing than state mandates require and that the grid will decarbonize 100% by 2060 if utility companies stick to their goals.

It does raise the question of why utility companies are moving faster than required. An Xcel spokesman opined that it’s because they’re recognizing opportunities and receiving unprecedented federal funding to transition to clean energy. Certainly the federal funding is a motivator and, for investor owned utilities like Xcel, the opportunity to make a handsome profit from their spending on renewables is, too. But the motivation for coops and municipally owned utilities like PRPA is less clear.

One of the authors of the study indicated that it could be because solar and wind are the cheapest forms of new electricity in many areas. The unprecedented federal funding for wind and solar mentioned by the Xcel spokesman may certainly make it seem that way sometimes, but the cost of wind and solar power facilities still far exceeds that of fossil fuel plants. For example, the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimate to build a large combined cycle gas turbine plant is $1,176/ kw; for solar, $1,448/kw; and for wind, $2,098/kw.

But, that’s only part of the story. The EIA estimates are based on nameplate capacities. Wind and solar are both weather dependent intermittent power sources that rarely produce their nameplate capacities. Colorado, as noted in the article, has some of the best solar and wind resource territory in the country. Yet, on average, wind only produces about 34.5% of its nameplate capacity and solar even less at about 17.6% based on 20142021 Colorado generation and capacity data compiled by Wikipedia.

So for Colorado, build cost based on the power actually produced increases to about $8,227/ kw for solar and $6,081/kw for wind, both much greater than for a gas turbine plant. And that doesn’t include the significant costs for transmission systems that have to be built and upgraded to bring the power from the remote areas where wind and solar facilities are normally built to the areas where the power is used.

Then, there’s the storage issue. For 100% renewable energy to be possible, there must be adequate power storage for those times when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine. There have been several instances in recent years of major winter storms of several days duration where wind and solar essentially disappeared and, had it not been for fossil fuels, primarily coal, there would have been major disasters.

Many point to battery storage as the answer, but that’s questionable. The EIA reports that, at the end of 2022, the U.S. had 1,160,169 MW of utility-scale generation capacity. And, at the same time, the total utility-scale battery storage in the U.S. was 8,842 MW, less than 1% of the generation capacity. Even worse, the average duration of that battery storage was only about

1.5 hours. The cost to increase the battery back-up capacity to 100% of the generation capacity and extend the duration to several days, as would be needed based on recent winter storms, would be astronomical and is simply not feasible.

As evidenced by the Biden administration’s plans to spend $7 billion on clean hydrogen technology, hydrogen storage systems are now being touted as the answer. I explained a few months ago why hydrogen back-up with only about a 30% charge/discharge efficiency is a non-starter. This lack of adequate storage alone makes a 100% renewable energy grid impossible in 2060 or any other time in the foreseeable future.

The leader of the study indicated that consumer desires may also be a factor in utilities trying to outpace mandates. That certainly seems possible given the 30 plus year effort to demonize fossil fuels. But, I have seen increased public pushback recently and am hopeful that the banning of fossil fuels can be stopped before the grid and our economy are both completely destroyed.