Virus infections threaten US economic recovery
Rising coronavirus infections across dozens of states are threatening the U.S. economic recovery.
BALTIMORE >> Rising coronavirus infections across dozens of states are threatening the U.S. economic recovery, forcing businesses and consumers to freeze spending and keeping the unemployment rate stubbornly high.
The government reported Thursday that retail sales rose a sharp 7.5% in June, but the positive trend was undercut by more recent data showing that credit card spending has stalled. A separate report showed that more than a million Americans sought unemployment benefits last week — a sign that companies continue to cut jobs as the virus slashes through the heavily populated Sunbelt.
Economists fear that any positive momentum could come to a halt later this summer if infections and deaths rise, forcing more businesses to close.
“Conditions in the labor market remain weak and the risk of mounting permanent job losses is high, especially If activity continues to be disrupted by repeated virus-related shutdowns,” said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.
It was the 17th consecutive week that jobless claims surpassed 1 million. Prior to the pandemic, just 200,000 people sought unemployment assistance in a typical week.
The Labor Department data emerged as the nation saw more troubling infections. Florida reported a single-day record of 156 deaths, along with nearly 14,000 new cases, mirroring a broader trend this week that has seen the national death rate spike. The seven-day rolling average for new deaths has risen to 730, a more than 21 percent increase from a week ago.
Infections are now climbing in 40 states, and 22 states have either paused or reversed efforts to reopen their economies, according to Bank of America.
Businesses and consumers alike are adjusting to the perpetual risk of outbreaks.
Restaurants and stores have been forced to make Darwinian leaps to survive. Cash payments are out. Deliveries are in. Skeleton crews are keeping retailers afloat. It’s a moment of both caution and innovation that will likely produce lasting changes in how Americans spend. There might not be a return to business as usual.
At the R. House food hall in Baltimore, all orders and payments now go through an app, Toast TakeOut. Customers gather on an outdoor patio instead of venturing inside what had previously been an auto dealership.
That reduces the hall’s potential capacity to 100 eaters from 350 before the outbreak and makes the business more dependent on take-out.
But the payment app has become a convenience for customers, who no longer need to wait in lines for cash registers and can settle into their seats while ordering from the local eateries on site that range from from authentic tacos to Korean BBQ to Hawaiian poke bowls to fried chicken sandwiches.
“Absolutely we’re going to keep using this technology,” said Peter DiPrinzio, director of food and beverage at the food hall.
Dedric Richardson, 45, and his wife opened Creole Soul at R. House in December, serving po’ boys, gumbo and shrimp and grits. Sales are rebounding after the shutdown, but they are still down by half, and his staff has shrunk from 10 to four. Noting that he served in the Navy, Richardson is still optimistic that he can steer through the difficult times.
“That’s the nature of the beast we’re living in,” he said. “I feel like I’m the cashier, the chef, the everybody.”
Gap, Kohl’s and other stores are withdrawing clothes worn in their changing rooms from sales floors for several days to reduce infection risks. Adding to all this pressure are signs that the recovery in consumer spending began to stall at the end of last month, according to analysis of credit cards by the bank JPMorgan Chase.
“This is my biggest nightmare that we would open and reclose small businesses,” said Sandy Sigal, president and CEO of NewMark Merrill Companies, which operates a total of 85 outdoor lifestyle centers in California, Colorado and Illinois. Sixty of the centers are located in California, which has now reclosed gyms and nail salons among other businesses.