Could Caltrain shut down? Why the once unthinkable is now a real possibility

The potential for Caltrain to temporarily shut down later this year is moving from near-unthinkable to a real possibility, after the San Francisco Board of Supervisors on Tuesday declined to take up a proposal to put a new sales tax funding the Peninsula railroad on the November ballot.

The permanent death of the nearly 160-year-old rail line isn’t on the table — but even temporarily stopping all service would be the most dramatic step a Bay Area public transportation agency has been forced to take as the coronavirus pandemic chases away riders and threatens the future of mass transit.

Caltrain officials had originally pitched the one-eighth cent sales tax in San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties as a way to fund ambitious plans to transform the commuter railroad into a BART-like system, running electrified trains between San Jose and San Francisco every few minutes.

But when ridership plummeted by more than 90 percent this spring, the measure morphed into $108 million per year lifeline.

More than any other transit system in the Bay Area, Caltrain needs riders to survive. It relies on passenger fares for 70 percent of its budget, while also getting a subsidy from the three counties where it operates. Officials eyed the sales tax as a way to create the kind of dedicated revenue source that agencies such as BART use to fund their budgets.

But Caltrain’s ridership skews toward white-collar commuters, who are considered some of the least likely to return to public transportation in the coronavirus era, whether because they are working from home or because they can drive instead of sharing enclosed space with other passengers.

Without riders, Caltrain officials say the agency will need an infusion of cash from somewhere. Otherwise, spokesman Dan Lieberman said, “There wouldn’t be enough funding for the system to run.”

“Last week, this was a scary what-if,” Lieberman said. Now, it seems like a more immediate threat.

None of the potential sources for emergency funding are a guarantee.

SamTrans, Muni and Valley Transportation Authority could increase the subsidy they pay to Caltrain. But the railroad estimates its needs could top $50 million, and it will be a tough sell convincing those agencies that are struggling with their own coronavirus budget cuts to give more.

There’s also the possibility of state or federal help; public transportation agencies across the country are now lobbying for a $36 billion federal aid package, though it’s unclear whether Congress will provide it.

And while San Francisco board’s decision doesn’t completely kill the Caltrain tax measure, it certainly puts the proposal on death’s door.

San Francisco Supervisor Shamann Walton said he declined to introduce the measure because of Caltrain’s management structure, saying it gives San Mateo County too much power over the railroad. Critics have also taken issue with the idea of a new sales tax, which will be disproportionately be paid by people with lower incomes, being used to fund a transit system that primarily serves wealthy riders.

Caltrain needed all of the boards of SamTrans, Muni and VTA, plus the boards of supervisors in San Mateo, Santa Clara and San Francisco counties, to agree to put the proposal on November’s ballot in each county. SamTrans and San Mateo County already have. The San Francisco Board of Supervisors could still bring the measure up for a vote sometime before the end of the month, but after Tuesday’s action its prospects seem dim.