Raiders may upset Chiefs for road win
The Las Vegas Raiders are an afterthought in Kansas City, and for good reason.
As quarterback Derek Carr noted with candor this week, it takes two to make a rivalry and the Raiders haven’t held up their end, especially at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs are coming off a Super Bowl championship, are 4- 0 and destined for another AFC West title. The Raiders have lost two straight, are 2-2, and their season could go either way with a long list of injuries and a leaky defense.
Under coach Andy Reid, the Chiefs are 10-2 against the Raiders and 6- 0 at Arrowhead Stadium since 2013, outscoring their alleged rival 176-70 in Kansas City. Since his return to coaching, Jon Gruden is 0- 4 against the Chiefs, coming within 40-33 the first time they played but outscored 103-20 in the last three games.
So it’s no wonder the Raiders are 12-point underdogs, a whopping margin by NFL standards and the second biggest point spread this week behind Cincinnati ( plus 13 1/2) against Baltimore.
But Chiefs players have a lot on their mind, and the Raiders aren’t necessarily atop their list of priorities. They are coming off a 26-10 win over New England, after which the Patriots’ Stephon Gilmore tested positive for COVID-19. Gilmore interacted with several players after the game, including quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs’ $503 million man.
One of the Chiefs’ practice squad players, quarterback Jordan Ta’amu, is on the COVID-19 list and presumably has interacted with Mahomes on some level as they play the same position.
When Mahomes did his video teleconference with the media this week, he spent most of the time talking about the coronavirus. The Raiders were barely mentioned.
While the Raiders follow the Chiefs with a bye week, Kansas City has a Thursday night game coming up against Buffalo, which is currently unbeaten at 4- 0.
Keep in mind that while the Chiefs are formidable, and cemented their status with a convincing Week 3 win over Baltimore, they were fortunate to beat the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2 and were more workman-like than spectacular against New England, which was using Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham at quarterback in place of Cam Newton.
This isn’t the usual December game at Arrowhead where the weather is frigid and the Chiefs are grinding toward a playoff berth. If the Raiders are to break through at their least favorite venue, there’s no time like the present.
“Kansas City is for real. They are the defending world champions,” Gruden said. “I think every starter is returning for the most part. Very uncommon feat,
winning a championship and returning the entire squad. Yeah, it would mean a lot.”
Some ways in which the Raiders could beat the Chiefs and snap their losing streak at Arrowhead Stadium at seven:
1. THE SUN SHINES ON DEREK CARR >> Carr has done some good things against the Chiefs, just not at Arrowhead Stadium. He’s going in with the best supporting cast he’s had with the possible exception of 2016, and he’s not doing it in December like usual.
“He can wing it,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. “We’ve got to be on our toes.”
The Raiders will be better off, of course, if Carr is winging it about the same ratio as Josh Jacobs and Co. are running it. While the Chiefs can score from anywhere, favorable down and distance en route to the end zone is what feeds the beast for the Raiders.
2. THE DEFENSE STEPS UP — WITH MINIMAL BLITZING >> The masses would have you believe the Raiders should send the house at Mahomes to disrupt the rhythm of the NFL’s most explosive passer. And defensive coordinator Paul Guenther noted the Raiders have blitzed more of late to try and bring more pressure.
One problem. Mahomes does some of his best work in chaotic situations, and he has begun to acquire a trait common to truly great quarterbacks. You blitz, you pay.
“Mahomes sees the blitz and he has the quickest trigger in the league, probably,” Gruden said. “He knows how to buy time and they have some great audibles that defeat the blitz.”
It’s not that the Chiefs can’t grind out a long drive. The have and they will. But better to play top down coverage, keep receivers in front and make them work for the end zone.
3. HENRY RUGGS III, AND NOT TYREEK HILL, CHANGES THE GAME >> The Raiders drafted Henry Ruggs IIII with the thought of having their very own Tyreek Hill, a wide receiver with game-breaking speed who can sprint past the defense or take a bubble screen or jet sweep to the house.
Ruggs should be back after missing two games with a hamstring injury. He’s missed a lot of practice. Hill is at full speed and has caught a touchdown pass in each of the Chiefs’ four games.
But if the Raiders want to flip the script, then dialing up a big play for Ruggs while at the same time keeping Hill out of the end zone would mean a lot.
4. THE RAIDERS PLAY KEEP
AWAY AND TAKEAWAY >> The Raiders most important defender may be Jacobs. If Jacobs carries 25 times and breaks 100 yards, Mahomes will spend a lot of time on the sideline where he can’t do any damage.
Same goes for Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow and whoever else Carr is looking for on third-andreasonable.
As for the takeaways, the Raiders have just two in
four games — interceptions by Nicholas Morrow and Johnathan Abram. They’ll need at least two more to beat the Chiefs, while at the same time taking care of the ball themselves.
Gruden is aghast at the minus- 9 disadvantage in turnover margin in the four games against the Chiefs since he’s come back to the sideline. It’s not as if Reid, a longtime friend, needs that much help.
5. DANIEL CARLSONCALLSON HIS INNER SEABASS >> If the Raiders are going to beat the Chiefs, chances are it will be close and it could come down to a field goal.
Daniel Carlson is 9-for10 on field goal attempts in four games and has buried three kicks from 54 yards. He had two of 50-plus all of last season. So Gruden
trusts him to dial long distance.
Much like he did Sebastian Janikowski, to whom Arrowhead Stadium was his second home. In his Raiders career, Janikowski missed a pair of field goal attempts as a rookie before kicking a game winner. He went on to convert 32 of 36 attempts for his career and broke the hearts of the Chiefs more than once.
When Chiefs tight end Tony Gonazlez talked to Bay Area reporters by conference call after he’d moved on to Atlanta, he said his most vivid memory of Chiefs-Raiders was Janikowski beating Kansas City with field goals.
If the Raiders hope to make it a rivalry again, a little nostalgia never hurt anyone.