Will Californians heed warnings and stay home?

COVID-19 cases and deaths are surging nationally, with Thanksgiving get-togethers the suspected culprit.

The Rev. Maria Cristina Vlassidis Burgoa had hoped her son would be able to visit this Christmas.

Erick has come every holiday season since his mother left the East Coast in 2016 to take over the ministry at Starr King Unitarian Universalist Church in Hayward. And he’s had a rough year — he lost his dream business, a Boston coffeehouse, to the coronavirus- caused economic downturn — so he could use the emotional boost a family visit would mean.

But not during this pandemic year.

“We won’t risk it,” said the minister, whose church has been closed since March for the protection of its members. “The fear of contagion, just when we are about to get the vaccine, overrides all desire to get together. I live with my 90-year- old mother, and I must protect her too.”

That stay-at-home ethos is just what CDC, California and county health officials want to hear. COVID-19 case numbers and deaths are surging nationally, with Thanksgiving get-togethers the suspected contagion culprit. In the two weeks since the holiday, the state’s average daily case count has increased 132 percent, and its average daily death toll even more, 157 percent. Sheltering and quarantine rules are in place in many California locations, and hotels in a significant portion of the state are closed to all but essential workers.

Many Americans are already thinking twice about traveling for Christmas and New Year’s, according to the American Automobile Association’s forecast for Dec. 23 to Jan. 3, issued Tuesday.

AAA anticipates the number of Americans traveling by air or road during that time period will decline at least 29 percent — a much bigger drop than at Thanksgiving, when AAA forecasters predicted a 10 percent drop but now believe it was steeper, from 15 to 20 percent.

Between now and year’s end, “the continued rise in coronavirus cases could prompt additional wouldbe travelers to forgo their plans,” Sergio Avila, a spokesman for AAA Northern California, said in the report.

Even with the decline, an estimated 84 million Americans — a quarter of the nation’s population — will be traveling. A survey by the American Hotel & Lodging Association found a majority of this season’s travelers say they won’t be staying at hotels or motels but rather with family or friends — the sort of mixing of households that health officials are discouraging.

Some Californians who think their risk factors are low may be tempted to book a December or January vacation.

Southwest has been pitching $99 one-way fares between the Bay Area and Honolulu. Alaska Airlines is rolling out an early testing program that allows customers to get an exemption from Hawaii’s mandatory 14-day quarantine before they even leave the mainland.