New strategy could let Bay Area reopen sooner
Counties across California will likely be allowed to ease restrictions on businesses and activities more quickly in the coming weeks, as part of an accelerated reopening strategy state officials announced in tandem with a new policy targeting vaccine supplies to hard-hit communities.
In the Bay Area, the change could allow Contra Costa County to join Alameda, Santa Cruz and Solano counties in leaving the most-restrictive stage of the state’s coronavirus regulations as soon as next week.
And other Bay Area counties that have already graduated out of the “purple” tier, as the tightest limits are known, could in the near future have a quicker path to adopting even less-restrictive rules.
State officials late Wednesday announced a new strategy of reserving 40% of COVID vaccine doses for less-wealthy neighborhoods that have borne a disproportionate share of coronavirus cases and deaths.
They are pairing that plan with relaxed standards for moving through the color-coded system that regulate activities such as indoor dining, high school sports and the size of gatherings in each of California’s 58 counties — though they stressed the state will still have some of the tightest COVID restrictions in the country.
“As we achieve higher levels of vaccine in our hardest-hit communities, we feel more confident that more activities can occur,” Health and Human Services Secretary Mark Ghaly said on a briefing call with reporters Thursday. But, he added, “We will keep our foot on the brake, not on the gas.”
The new standards would allow counties to move out of the purple tier and into the less-restrictive red tier — which allows for indoor activities at restaurants, gyms and other establishments — if they record an adjusted case rate of less than 10 cases per 100,000 residents per day for two straight weeks. The current standard is 7 cases; state data showed Contra Costa County had a case rate of 9.5 this week.
The state will adopt the easier standard once it has distributed 2 million doses of COVID vaccines to residents of census tracts that rank in the bottom quarter of a health equity metric known as the California Healthy Places Index. The index grades census tracts based on income, education levels and other factors.
In the Bay Area, much of East San Jose, East and West Oakland and San Francisco’s Bayview and Tenderloin districts, along with parts of Richmond, Gilroy, Antioch and Pittsburg, rank in the bottom quarter of the index. The census tracts are spread across about 400 ZIP codes, and also include wide swaths of the Central Valley and less-wealthy areas in Southern California.
Throughout the pandemic, areas that rank lowest in the metric have seen some of the highest rates of COVID infections. But they have so far gotten a smaller share of the vaccine supply compared to wealthier parts of the state where residents tend to be at less risk — Ghaly estimated that just 16-17% of doses have gone to people who live in neighborhoods that make up the index’s bottom quartile, while 34% went to those in the highest quartile.
As of Thursday, Ghaly said the state has distributed about 1.6 million doses to residents in the bottom 25% of the index, and estimated it will hit the 2 million-dose mark “sometime in the next week or two.”
If that happens on Tuesday or later, and Contra Costa County’s case rate remains below 10, the county would advance into the red tier automatically. Without the new standards, the county would have to get its case rate below 7 for two straight weeks to move forward.
The strategy will likely have an even bigger impact in Southern California and the Central Valley, where nearly every county remains in the purple tier.
The looser standards probably won’t immediately affect Alameda, Santa Cruz and Solano counties, which are already on pace to enter the red tier next week. Same with Santa Clara, San Mateo, San Francisco and Marin counties, which have all entered that stage over the past two weeks.
But the new rules could affect those counties in the near future: Once the state distributes another 2 million doses to residents of neighborhoods in the index’s lowest quartile, for a total of 4 million, Ghaly said officials would further loosen the rules for entering the orange and yellow reopening stages.
He did not say precisely how the criteria for those tiers would change, or how long it is expected to take for the state to distribute 2 million doses in its most vulnerable communities. Gov. Gavin Newsom said Tuesday that California expects to receive a total of about 1.6 million doses next week, though supplies are expected to increase over the coming weeks and months.
Not everyone who lives in the targeted neighborhoods will be able to get a shot right away. For now, Ghaly said, the state will keep in place eligibility rules that allow people over 65, educators, first responders, food and agricultural workers, people with disabilities and those with conditions that put them at higher risk from COVID to get vaccinated.
The state is partnering with community clinics and organizations in an effort to help residents navigate California’s online vaccination appointment system, MyTurn.ca.gov, which has proven difficult for those who are less tech-savvy or don’t have time to scour webpages in search of a slot. Those organizations will also serve as “local, trusted messengers,” Ghaly said, to overcome any hesitancy residents may have about getting vaccinated.
And Ghaly said the state would use tools on the MyTurn website to ensure that appointments at vaccination clinics go to locals. A number of stories have emerged from the vaccine roll-out of less-vulnerable residents accessing special codes and appointment slots that were supposed to be reserved for those who live in harder-hit areas.
“Sending it there is one thing, but ensuring it gets in the arms of the people who are most vulnerable in those communities is another,” he said.