Census analysis finds undercount but not as bad as predicted
The 2020 census missed an estimated 1.6 million people, but given hurdles posed by the pandemic and natural disasters, the undercount was smaller than expected, according to an analysis by a think tank that did computer simulations of the nation’s head count.
The analysis, done by the Urban Institute and released Tuesday, found that people of color, renters, noncitizens, children and people living in Texas — the state that saw the nation’s largest growth — were most likely to be missed, though by smaller margins than some had projected for a count conducted in the midst of a global pandemic. Still, those shortfalls could affect the drawing of political districts and distribution of federal spending.
The analysis estimates there was a 0.5% undercount of the nation’s population during the 2020 census. If that modeled estimate holds true, it would be greater than the 0.01% undercount in the 2010 census but in the same range as the 0.49% undercount in the 2000 census.
The 2020 head count of the nation’s 331 million residents last year faced unprecedented challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic, wildfires in the West, hurricanes on the Gulf Coast and attempts at politicization by the Trump administration. The census is used to determine how many congressional seats each state gets, provides the data used for drawing political districts and helps determine the allocation of $1.5 trillion in federal spending each year.
“The fact that the undercount wasn’t larger is surprising and certainly a good news story,” said Diana Elliott, principal research associate at the Urban Institute. “This undercount suggests the 2020 census may not be as close in accuracy as 2010, but it may not be as dire as some had feared.”
The official undercount or overcount of the census won’t be known until next year when the Census Bureau releases a report card on its accuracy. The bureau’s post-enumeration survey measures the accuracy of the census by independently surveying a sample of the population and estimating how many people and housing units were missed or counted erroneously
The Urban Institute created computer simulations that modeled the count by demographic characteristics and geography. Despite the smaller-thanexpected national undercount, it showed wide ranges based on race, ethnic background, age and among U.S. states and metro areas.
In 2020, Black and Hispanic people had net undercounts of more than 2.45% and 2.17%, respectively, according to the Urban Institute estimates, while they were respectively 2.07% and 1.54% in 2010.
There was an overcount of white residents by 0.39%, according to the Urban Institute, and undercounts of Asians, Native Americans and Hawaiian or Pacific Islanders by 0.6%, 0.36% and 1.5%, respectively.