How Warriors broke the code
The Warriors defied one of NBA's most popular prediction models
The Warriors came into this postseason as an unknown. Klay Thompson only played once the calendar flipped to 2022, Draymond Green dealt with an injury that kept him out for two months, and then Steph Curry missed the final 12 games of the regular season with a foot injury.
In all, the Warriors were a sub-.500 team after the All-Star Game and entered the postseason without a set rotation, momentum, or any sort of continuity on both sides of the court.
So of course they reached the NBA Finals.
Now that Golden State is in a sixth NBA Finals in eight years and sits four wins away from a fourth title, there are plenty of believers in the Warriors once again.
The wise guys in the desert — or, more accurately, the bookies pushing odds to your phone in certain states — love the Warriors to win the title, regardless of the opponent.
In fact, after Boston lost a series-clinching game at home against Miami on Friday night, pushing the Western Conference Finals to a Game 7, it seems as if everyone — not just the bettors — is in on the Dubs.
But the computers remain skeptical.
Ok, it's only one computer I know about, but there could be more out there. Cyberspace is vast.
By now, you might have seen a screenshot or heard tell of the website FiveThirtyEight's NBA predictive model. They call it RAPTOR — who cares why? — and as of Saturday morning, says that the Warriors, despite being in the NBA Finals and being the odds-on favorites to win the title, have only a 29 percent chance of winning the series.
Twenty-nine percent?