San Jose to San Francisco highspeed rail costs balloon over 200%
Plagued by years of funding shortages and spiraling costs, California's beleaguered high-speed rail project suffered another unexpected blow this month in a new report that more than tripled the cost estimate for the San Francisco-to-San Jose segment to a staggering $5.3 billion.
The new price tag is part of a report that completes a years-long environmental clearance process for the 48-mile corridor that would carry bullet trains down the Peninsula on electrified Caltrain tracks at 110 miles per hour and eventually on to Southern California. It outlines three stops, a controversial rail yard in Brisbane, and money allocated to everything from protecting Monarch butterflies to restoring Bent-flowered fiddleneck habitat.
But the environmental document released last week also includes the new price tag for the recommended route through the Peninsula, more than three times the figure penciled into the High-Speed Rail Authority's 2022 business plan.
These eye-popping budget revisions are partly due to inflation, real estate costs and supply chain woes impacting megaprojects around the country. But they also underscore the shaky grip the HighSpeed Rail Authority has on cost projections for the embattled rail project, a vision that has already morphed into one of California's most expensive and controversial undertakings.
Brian Kelly, CEO of the High-Speed Rail Authority, said the agency is in a bind over cost estimates because without funding, they are unable to structure budgets on an accurate timeline.
“I don't really think it's fair to ask us, `Gee, what are your cost estimates to get somewhere' when nobody is providing us funding to get there,” said Kelly. “That just puts us in a guess-forever position.”
Even with the dramatically higher cost figures, the San Jose-to-San Francisco link is relatively cheap and less disruptive compared to other segments of the project because it relies on existing Caltrain tracks and stations. Unlike the line connecting the Central Valley to Silicon Valley, no massive tunnel boring operation is involved.
Louis Thompson, head of a state-mandated peer review group, said some estimates in the budget blueprint are years out of date just as lawmakers are haggling with Gov. Gavin Newsom over whether to commit the remaining $4.2 billion in voter-approved money to finish building the Central Valley segment of the rail line from Bakersfield to Merced, often dubbed the “train to nowhere.”