49ers to determine now if they’re playoff caliber

I don’t like using the term “must-win game.”

The only “must-win” contests, by definition, are elimination games.

But the 49ers’ game against the Dolphins last week came awfully close to “must-win” status. As I said before the game, the difference between 2-3 and 3-2 is massive for this team. The way the 49ers played in that game only exacerbated that difference, which we can all see now.

And if last Sunday’s game nearly qualified as “must-win,” what does that make this Sunday’s game against the Rams? Yes, it’s a biggun, and it’ll be on the national stage to boot.

But I’d like to reframe the conversation. Instead of playing the stressful week-by-week game, I want Niners fans to take a step back and look at the next three games.

That’s the season for this reeling team.

And, the way things are going, that means there’s a good chance that they could exit the month of October with that season effectively over.

Who saw that coming a few months — a few weeks — ago?

Yes, thanks to bad luck and worse play, the next three contests — Sunday against the Rams, Oct. 25 at the Patriots, and Nov. 1 at the Seahawks — will make or break San Fran

cisco’s ‘Revenge Tour’ campaign, which might be a reflexive nickname these days.

Pick up two or more wins in those three games, and the Niners are at least a .500 team, right in the thick of things at the halfway point of the season. They’ll have some positive vibes, a couple of wins against teams worthy of being in the NFL, and plenty of opportunities to jump up the NFC standings in the following weeks with games against the Packers, Saints and the Rams (again) looming.

But drop two games in this upcoming threegame stretch and the Niners’

season is cooked. Try to convince yourself differently all you want, but there’s no coming back from having five losses on your record come Nov. 1.

Not for a team that has this kind of quarterback play. Not for a team that already has this level of roster attrition. Not for a team playing in the best division in football. Not for a team in the NFC, which will likely demand nine wins to make the playoffs. And not for a team that has a schedule that doesn’t relent until mid-December.

What needs to change for the Niners to be in a position to maximize this three-game opportunity — to put this team back on the right track?

We don’t have enough space to go through it all.

So let’s start with the basics: The quarterback and both the offensive and defensive lines need to be significantly better.

Win in the trenches and have the better quarterback in the game, and you’re going to win more than you lose.

Of course, that’s easier said than done. Jimmy Garoppolo looked jittery and stiff last week, the offensive line is a hot mess, and while the defensive line might be playing well, injuries have drastically undercut the talent level. But it must be done. The Niners started this season with justified Super Bowl dreams. They don’t have to throw them out just yet — there’s still time for a dramatic turnaround. But make no mistake, it’s running out fast.