Surge will strain ICUs
NorCal hospitals expected to hit 134% ICU capacity by Christmas Eve, governor says
There’s a surge in the number of new COVID-19 cases being reported across the country and the state is projecting hospitals will become overwhelmed over the course of December.
If current trends hold, Northern California is expected to hit its intensive- care-unit bed capacity by early December and will hit 134% of its capacity by Christmas Eve, Gov. Gavin Newsom said during a news conference Monday. About 85% of the region’s ICU beds are currently in use, according to figures presented at the press conference. The total number of hospital beds currently being occupied in Northern California
is 49%, projected to hit 64% by Christmas Eve, and about 85% of the region’s ICU beds are currently in use, according to the data presented at the news conference.
“We are projected to run out of ICU beds by (Dec. 24),” state Assemblyman Jim Wood wrote in a tweet. “Northern CA, i.e., rural hospitals, will be hit the hardest. This will not only cause us to lose more precious lives, but hospitals may not be able to recover so they’ll be there post-COVID.”
On Sunday, California became the first state to record over 100,000 cases in a week, according to reporting by The New York Times. But Newsom pointed out California has the same population as almost two dozen states combined and comparing the state’s seven-day average case rate, 34.5 cases per 100,000 residents, showed it’s faring better than other places like North Dakota (112.3 cases per 100,000) and Minnesota (104.6 cases per 100,000).
“We are doing, relatively speaking, better than the overwhelming majority of states,” Newsom said, “ranking 39th in the country … but that said, the alarming concern … is the rate of growth.”
The seven- day average for new COVID-19 cases during the first COVID-19 peak was 9,881, which Newsom said is now 14,034.
The COVID-19 positivity rate was 4.7% in mid-November, increasing to 5.5% days before Thanksgiving, according to data presented by Newsom. The statewide positivity rate is currently 6.25% and there’s been an 89% increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations over the past two weeks, he said. That could increase by two to three times in a month’s time, Newsom said.
About 12% of daily COVID-19 cases that are reported are likely to be hospitalized two weeks after being reported, and 10% to 30% of those hospitalized will need to be placed in the ICU, Newsom said.
There is expected to be a further increase in case counts in about two weeks because of COVID-19 transmission that could have happened over the Thanksgiving holiday, Newsom said.
Mad River Community Hospital spokesperson Pam Floyd said Humboldt County’s positivity rate was closely tracking it unlike at the start of the pandemic, but “we are better equipped now than we were six months ago.”
The hospital established an emergency plan in March when the pandemic began that is guiding its operations, Floyd said, and the hospital has the ability to expand its ICU capacity.
Floyd pointed out the Northern California label is vague and while areas like Redding have more ICU capacity, it wouldn’t take much for the coastal side of the region to hit its ICU capacity because there are already so few ICU beds to begin with. Humboldt County has 27 ICU beds.
Even though hospitalizations are increasing, the death rate has remained relatively low in the state compared to other areas, Floyd said. As of Monday at 3 p.m., Johns Hopkins University data showed the state’s COVID-19 fatality rate at 1.58% and the county’s at 1.06%, compared to 5.39% in places like New York state.
“But that’s because of what happened at the very beginning,” Floyd said, “not recently.”