Lessons from the last recall effort
Gov. Gray Davis made history on Oct. 7, 2003, by becoming only the second governor in the lifetime of the U.S. to be recalled by voters. The only other was a governor of faraway North Dakota in 1921.
With Gov. Gavin Newsom now under threat of recall himself, Democrats would do well to remember the successful recall effort against Davis, from which some lessons can be learned.
The first is that all recall attempts should be taken seriously. The 2003 recall effort first reared its head in February, just three months after Davis won re- election.
Since the recall provision of the state constitution was added in 1911, more than 30 recall attempts had been announced against governors — including iconic figures like Pat Brown and Ronald Reagan. None had ever even made the ballot. Until one did.
Democrats called the effort, led by a couple of conservative gadflies, “political theatre,” and a sour-grapes attempt to overturn Davis’ 2002 victory. At first, the recall was a ragtag movement, relying on social media, talk radio and volunteers among networks of conservatives to collect the million-plus signatures needed to qualify for the ballot.
Until it wasn’t. In May, Rep.
Darrell Issa of San Diego, one of the richest members of Congress, pumped nearly $2 million into the effort, allowing paid professional signature gatherers to be engaged — the only effective way to qualify a ballot measure in the mega-state of California.
Issa’s interest was purely selfserving: he wanted to run for governor himself but was afraid to challenge Davis in the regularly scheduled 2002 election. Issa’s emergence as the face of the recall delighted Democrats, because his personal history as a car thief (he had invented the Viper car alarm, based on his youthful experience stealing cars) and alleged arsonist allowed them to feed juicy opposition research to the news media. It was thought that even if the recall qualified for the ballot, it could easily be defeated with the tarnished Issa as the leading candidate seeking to replace Davis.
Until he wasn’t. On “The Tonight Show” on Aug. 7, megastar Arnold Schwarzenegger abruptly announced his candidacy, relegating all other GOP candidate hopefuls to second billing. The “Terminator” already had universal name ID and, although a registered Republican, a non-partisan image bolstered by his relationship by marriage to America’s Democratic royal family, the Kennedys.
In the end, Davis was recalled by a margin of 55- 45%.
Voters were ticked over an electricity crisis that led to blackouts, an increase in the vehicle license fee and a huge $35 billion budget deficit, all of which they blamed on Davis. But the opportunistic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, the only credible, high-profile Democrat running to replace Davis, was also humiliated, losing to Schwarzenegger 49-31%.
The number of signatures that will be required to qualify a recall is substantially higher in 2021 than it was in 2003. Recall proponents must turn in valid signatures equal to 12% of the total votes cast in the last gubernatorial election. There were only 8,621,142 votes cast for governor in 2002, a historically low turnout in an ugly, mostly negative slugfest. The 2018 turnout, with more registered voters than ever, was a historical high 12,464,235 voters casting ballots for governor.
Still, as the 2003 experience shows, neither Newsom nor Democrats should ignore the recall, neglect to prepare for it or assume it will not make the ballot. Most don’t. Until one did.
Garry South is a veteran Democratic strategist who managed Gray Davis’ successful gubernatorial campaigns in 1998 and 2002 and was senior advisor to Gavin Newsom’s first run for governor in 2008- 09, before Newsom exited the race, garrysouth11@gmail.com.