`Duty to warn' doesn't lead to `duty to listen'
The U.S. warning to Russia couldn't have been plainer: Two weeks before the deadliest attack in Russia in years, Americans had publicly and privately advised President Vladimir Putin's government that “extremists” had “imminent plans” for just such slaughter.
The United States shared those advance intelligence indications under a tenet of the U.S. intelligence community called the “duty to warn,” which obliges U.S. intelligence officials to lean toward sharing knowledge of a dire threat if conditions allow. That holds whether the targets are allies, adversaries or somewhere in between.
There's little sign Russia acted to try to head off Friday's attack at a concert hall on Moscow's edge, which killed more than 130 people. The Islamic State's affiliate in Afghanistan claimed responsibility, and the U.S. said it has information backing up the extremist group's claim.
John Kirby, the Biden administration's national security spokesman, made clear that the warning shouldn't be seen as a breakthrough in U.S.-Russian relations or intelligence-sharing. “Yeah, look, there's not going to be security assistance with Russia and the United States,” Kirby told reporters Monday.
“We had a duty to warn them of information that we had, clearly that they didn't have. We did that,” Kirby said.
Such warnings aren't always heeded — the United States has dropped the ball in the past on at least one Russian warning of extremist threats in the United States.
Here's a look at the duty to warn, how it came about, and how it can play out when American intelligence officers learn militants are poised to strike.
Ahead of the attack, a clear US warning
On March 7, the U.S. government went public with a remarkably precise warning: The U.S. Embassy in Moscow was monitoring unspecified reports that “extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts.” It warned U.S. citizens in Moscow to avoid big events over the next 48 hours.
U.S. officials said after the attack that they had shared the warning with Russian officials as well, under the duty to warn, but gave no details how.
Putin's public reaction was dismissive. Three days before the attack, he condemned what he called “provocative statements” from the West about possible attacks within Russia. Such warnings were aimed at intimidating Russians and destabilizing the country, he said.