Why Democrats will unite in November

The likely Democratic presidential nominee has lost recent primaries and presides over a divided party. That’s a pretty good description of Hillary Clinton now, but it’s an even better one of Barack Obama in 2008.

At this point eight years ago, Obama already was dubbed the nominee. But he had just lost the West Virginia and Kentucky primaries by 41 and 36 points, respectively. He was being faulted for limping to the nomination, for his inability to connect with ordinary folks, and for his comments about working- class voters clinging to guns or religion.

What’s worse, Obama faced questions about whether he could unify his party. Half of Clinton backers in an Indiana exit poll said they wouldn’t support him in the general election. A third said they’d vote for presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, and 17% said they would not vote at all. Even in the days after Clinton ended her campaign in June, things looked ominous. A CNN poll found only 60% of Clinton supporters would back Obama.

Then things changed, as they often do. Once Clinton’s backers absorbed reality, they began to weigh options and get behind Obama. That November, he’d be supported by 89% of self- identified Democrats, more than enough to win.

This history is worth noting in light of Clinton’s 2016 predicament. She has lost a string of primaries and caucuses and faces hostility from Bernie Sanders’ supporters, whose anger was evident in a chaotic uprising in Las Vegas this month. Yet the odds are still good that Democrats will go into the general election with a unified party.

Sure, Sanders could make trouble. He could encourage protesters and platform fights at the Democratic convention this summer in Philadelphia. But if he cares about progressive values, does he want to undermine the Democratic nominee?

As things stand, Clinton is in a stronger position with Sanders’ voters than Obama was with her voters. One quarter said in a recent poll that they wouldn’t support her. That’s a number to be concerned with, but it’s less than similar polls eight years ago. And it comes from a poll taken before Donald Trump, who is anathema to the great majority of Democrats, solidified his position as the presumptive GOP nominee.

Some working- class voters will flee, as they fled Obama in 2008. But the great bulk of Democrats don’t want a Trump presidency. Indeed, Trump likely strengthened the centripetal forces holding the Democratic Party together now.

To be sure, Trump is a wily and unconventional candidate whose appeal to independents and ability to attract previously unmotivated voters are not fully appreciated.

But the concept of Clinton limping into the Democratic convention is overblown. If Republicans can coalesce around Trump, who is more unpopular among their ranks than Clinton is with Democrats, then the Democrats can unify. If they want a model, they should look to 2008.