USA TODAY International Edition
Markets could predict election
Nearly 200 companies post results this week
History says incumbent party keeps power if S& P 500 shows gains.
Investors propelling the bull market to record highs will find out if their optimism is backed by fact, as an onslaught of high- profile companies are set to report earnings this week.
Nearly 200 of the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 are expected to report second- quarter results. These numbers will be critical after the Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor’s 500 hit new all- time highs last week as investors bet corporate earnings will bottom out in the second quarter and pick up in the second half. Analysts expect second- quarter profits to be down 4.1%, says S& P Global Market Intelligence. But profit is seen bouncing back by rising 1.7% in the third quarter and 7.6% in the fourth.
“How much will S& P 500 earnings estimates be lifted by a sudden, unexpected spurt in economic growth?” says Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management in a report to clients. Investors will finally get some data on a few corners of the market of most interest, including:
Technology. Apple, Facebook and Google parent Alphabet report results this week, giving investors new information to connect the dots on what’s going on in tech. Investors are eager to see tech start participating with more gusto in the stock market rally to confirm it’s real.
The Technology Select Sector SPDR exchange- traded fund is up 6.4% this year, only about in line with the S& P 500’ s 6% rise. Earnings are the problem. Tech companies are expected to post 1.9% lower adjusted second- quarter profit, hurt by a 25% profit drop at Apple. But following Microsoft’s definitive earnings beat last week, some might hope things could be better. Tech earnings are supposed to rise 1.5% in the third quarter and 3.2% in the fourth.
Energy. If there’s been a mark on corporate profitability, it’s been energy. Energy companies’ profits are seen dropping 82% in the second quarter. Giants ExxonMobil and Chevron report earnings this week, and investors will be listening about the future. Energy profits are expected to drop another 53% in the third quarter but start growing by a slight 2.4% by the fourth quarter.
Key blue chips. Both McDonald’s and Boeing report their results this week, giving investors insight into both the consumer economy and the industrial economy.
Shares of McDonald’s are up 8% this year as investors expect the company to benefit from a turnaround. McDonald’s adjusted second- quarter profit is expected to rise 7%.