USA TODAY International Edition
4- team slugfest in AL East division
AL East foes battling for three playoff spots
Head- to- head battles will determine winner
In the New York Yankees’ and Boston Red Sox’s glory days in the 2000s, the American League East was viewed as a rugged division. In fact, it was more often two behemoths and three punching bags.
Fast- forward a decade, and the AL East is about to see a 32- game sprint to the finish that once might have seemed unfathomable: Four teams with realistic chances at three playoff berths, hopscotching the continent and locking horns with one another 39 times.
They will be playing for October glory but also to postpone the inevitable: a superstar’s retirement, the free agency of two franchise players and the continued restructuring of the game’s most storied franchise.
Now until the regular season ends Oct. 2, some combination of the Red Sox, Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles will play each other every night, save for one day off, as they meet each other six or seven times apiece. USA TODAY Sports breaks down the road ahead for a quartet with destiny in their hands ( odds, schedule percentages and statistics are going into Monday):
Toronto Blue Jays
Currently: In first place, two games ahead of the Red Sox and four up on the Orioles
Playoff odds ( per Fangraphs): 92.4%
The rest of the schedule: Six vs. the Tampa Bay Rays, four vs. the Los Angeles Angels, three vs. the Seattle Mariners (. 460 overall winning percentage)
Good vibes: The hot- and- cold offense broke out with 32 runs in the three- game weekend sweep of the Minnesota Twins that put Toronto a season- best 18 games over .500, and outfielders Jose Bautista and Kevin Pillar are back in the lineup. The addition of setup men Jason Grilli and Joaquin Benoit has stabilized a shaky bullpen.
Bad vibes: The Jays gave up 21 runs to the Twins, requiring comebacks from at least three runs down in two of the games. Francisco Liriano ( 3.97 ERA in four starts with Toronto) has failed to secure his starting spot, so it’s not clear whether the Blue Jays will go with a six- man rotation after Aaron Sanchez returns Wednesday.
Drama: Bautista (. 229 average, .800 on- base- plus- slugging percentage) has not enjoyed the kind of season he wanted as he enters free agency, missing 46 games and being relegated to a DH role as he works his way back from a sprained knee. Bautista, who turns 36 in October, might be approaching his final days with Toronto. Edwin Encarnacion might be playing his way out of the team’s future as well, but for a different reason, as his huge numbers ( 36 homers, ALleading 106 RBI) are setting him up for a big payday as a free agent.
Forecast: The bullpen’s improvement and Sanchez’s return bode well for the Blue Jays’ chances of holding off all challengers and winning the division. Toronto’s offense has been puzzlingly inconsistent, but Josh Donaldson’s weekend explosion could be a sign of big things to come for the whole lineup.
Boston Red Sox
Currently: Two games behind the Blue Jays and two games up for the first wild card Playoff odds: 86%
The rest of the schedule: Six vs. the Rays, three vs. the Oakland Athletics, three vs. the San Diego Padres (. 429 overall winning percentage)
Good vibes: Nobody can match the firepower. They’re the only club in the majors with an OPS above .800, and their average of 5.42 runs per game is at least a half- run higher than any other AL team’s. Boston also has been getting better outings from its starters since the All- Star break ( 3.10 ERA in August), and All- Star Steven Wright returned to action Friday after missing three weeks with a shoulder injury.
Bad vibes: The bullpen has become a major concern, as underscored by Matt Barnes’ five- run implosion in Sunday’s loss to the Kansas City Royals. Junichi Tazawa and lefty Fernando Abad have struggled as well this month, making it harder for Boston to get the ball to closer Craig Kimbrel in save
situations.
Drama: David Ortiz’s seasonlong farewell tour continues, and he acknowledges the duties of being baseball’s most beloved ambassador have worn him down. Ortiz is the center of attention wherever he goes, with fans and the news media wanting a piece of his time. Big Papi has handled it well and continues to lead the majors in OPS at 1.040, but it’s a lot to ask of a 40- year- old to keep up that kind of production in the face of so many demands.
Forecast: Breakout seasons by Rick Porcello and Wright have taken pressure off David Price, who has turned things around after the break ( 3.19 ERA, after a 4.34 mark in the first half ). With improved work from the relief corps, the Red Sox should be able to claim a playoff spot.
Baltimore Orioles
Currently: Four games behind
the Blue Jays in the division, one game ahead of the Detroit Tigers for the final wild card
Playoff odds: 43% The rest of the schedule: Seven vs. the Rays, three vs. the Tigers, three vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks (. 459 winning percentage)
Good vibes: If winning is the best cologne, consider the threerun homer the aftershave. Baltimore continues pounding the baseball, with a major league- high 204 home runs. Six players have at least 19 home runs, including Mark Trumbo with a major league- high 40. Third baseman Manny Machado will push Donaldson for MVP honors. The bullpen’s 78% save conversion ranks the Orioles second to the Yankees.
Bad vibes: Kevin Gausman ( 3.73) and Chris Tillman ( 3.76) are the only pitchers with at least 10 starts who have an ERA lower than 5.38. And Tillman remains on
the disabled list with a shoulder injury.
Drama: Center fielder Adam Jones might be nursing a hamstring injury down the stretch. Fans have had it with Ubaldo Jimenez and his 6.62 ERA, but unless Tillman returns, options are limited. Can Wade Miley, with a 1.86 WHIP in five starts as an Oriole, be at least serviceable?
Forecast: Rotation woes make it tempting to write off Baltimore, but Buck Showalter has managed around the deficiencies brilliantly. It might get bumpy, but look for the Orioles to cling to that second wild- card spot and maintain their own even- year magic with a third playoff berth in five seasons.
New York Yankees
Currently: 71⁄ games behind 2 the Blue Jays in the division, 31⁄ 2 behind the Orioles for the final wild card Playoff odds: 6% The rest of the schedule: Seven vs. the Rays, three vs. the Royals, three vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers (. 504 winning percentage)
Good vibes: Until proven otherwise, rookie catcher Gary Sanchez will match Barry Bonds’ record- setting single- season home run rate. The blend of youth and veterans has worked out perfectly. Didi Gregorious is an above- average offensive shortstop.
Bad vibes: Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman, Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino are among the arms traded, injured or shipped out since the season began. The schedule offers no breathers; even the Rays are 6- 6 against the Yankees this year.
Drama: How will the kids respond to a four- game September slate at Fenway Park? How will it go over if Mark Teixeira is deprived of at- bats during his own farewell? Whoa, did Alex Rodriguez really just tweet that he wants to return for one more series at Yankee Stadium?
Forecast: Had New York pulled off a weekend sweep of Baltimore, this would look more realistic. But there are too many teams to pass and too many holes to play .750 ball in September. Still, the Yankees walk away with a decent consolation prize: It’s safe to trust the process again in the Bronx.