USA TODAY International Edition
FSU starts 2017 at the top
Seminoles strong in early look at next season’s elite
Even before the clock hit zero in the national championship game Monday in Tampa, we already had begun thinking about 2017. While the confetti might still be falling, here’s an early look at which teams will be battling for the College Football Playoff and a championship next season.
The list doesn’t begin with Alabama or Clemson, though both teams will again be in the hunt. Instead, the top team in the USA TODAY Sports early top 25 for 2017 is Florida State, which has the coaching, talent and experience to return to the top of the Football Bowl Subdivision ( 2016 record in parentheses; * before Monday’s game).
1. Florida State ( 10- 3): The Seminoles stumbled out of the gate this season before hitting another gear after a loss to Clemson in October. With valuable experience and as much talent as any team in the country, Florida State is the team to beat in the Atlantic Coast Conference and very deserving of the title of preseason No. 1 in August.
2. Alabama ( 14- 0*): Personnel hits are coming, but that has never derailed Alabama. Quarterback Jalen Hurts will be even better, the offense should be more focused on the running game with a new coordinator and the defense again will rank among the nation’s best. Take note: Alabama and FSU meet in the opener.
3. Ohio State ( 11- 2): Like the Crimson Tide, the Buckeyes will need to reload after losing several underclassmen to the NFL draft. But there will be far fewer losses this offseason than a year ago, so look for Ohio State to be loaded with talent and experience, not to mention more streamlined and less predictable on offense after staffing changes.
4. Michigan ( 10- 3): The Wolverines will be right on the Buckeyes’ heels, as they were in 2016 — and as will be the case for as long as Jim Harbaugh and Urban Meyer are in charge of the two programs. There is too much to like about Michigan to list here, but begin with the major assets: a wonderful defense despite a few losses in the back seven, a physical and punishing brand of offense and a sense of unfinished business after two painful losses to end the 2016 season.
5. Southern California
( 10- 3): Let the hype begin for USC and superb quarterback Sam Darnold, who will begin his sophomore season at or near the top of every Heisman Trophy list. The question: Are the Trojans ready to take the next step? The ability and athleticism are there, but the potential departure of several NFL- ready underclassmen bears watching.
6. Oklahoma ( 11- 2): The Sooners obviously must improve on defense after a sluggish season, but there’s reason for optimism. Given the likely production of the Baker Mayfield- led offense, Oklahoma is simply a defense away from taking the Big 12 and returning to the Playoff. The Sooners have enormous expectations but slightly more question marks than the five teams listed above. 7. Washington ( 12- 2): Reaching the Playoff semifinals showed Washington’s growth, though the loss to Alabama revealed the distance still to travel before the Huskies can win a national championship. Considering Chris Petersen’s history, the 2017 team could be better than this season’s version, even if there will be a number of personnel issues to address as a result of early departures. The Huskies will be the preseason favorites in the Pac- 12 and a strong contender for a return trip to the Playoff.
8. Penn State ( 11- 3): The Nittany Lions’ biggest post- regular season development was offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead’s decision to return in 2017. That, along with the return of quarterback Trace McSorley and running back Saquon Barkley, will ensure this offseason will be even better next season. Recapturing this year’s magic won’t be easy, but there’s zero reason to think Penn State is poised to take any step back.
9. Clemson ( 13- 1*): Clemson will be among the most intriguing teams in college football entering next season. Deshaun Watson most likely won’t be around, and that alone is reason to think the Tigers will begin the year pegged to finish behind Florida State. But this program recruits at an elite level, has an outstanding defensive line, should get improved play on the offensive line and has earned the benefit of the doubt. Still, there will be major weapons to replace on offense and key leaders to replace on defense. This might nonetheless be too low a ranking for Clemson. 10. Oklahoma State ( 10- 3): To call Oklahoma State a sleeper ignores the fact that this program has been in the national picture for the better part of the decade. But there seems to be something overlooked about the Cowboys, who return the heart of their offense and have enough coming back on defense to be right alongside or just behind Oklahoma on the Big 12 ladder. 11. LSU ( 8- 4): The Tigers’ impressive bowl win against Louisville provided early validation for coach Ed Orgeron. How far LSU goes hinges almost entirely on how quickly new coordinator Matt Canada can fix the offense.
12. Wisconsin ( 11- 3): Any doubts about Wisconsin’s ability to remain a national presence should be dismissed after another banner year for Paul Chryst and the Badgers. Wisconsin will be just behind the top three of Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State in the Big Ten. 13. Virginia Tech ( 10- 4): In what was supposed to be a building year, Justin Fuente led the Hokies to a divisional title and 10 wins. The future will be even better, beginning with a 2017 team that should repeat atop the ACC Coastal Division.
14. Auburn ( 8- 5): This is the most intriguing team in the Southeastern Conference and perhaps all of college football. Auburn is often hit or miss, but the addition of Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham should kick the Tigers offense into a different gear. But will that be enough?
15. Stanford ( 10- 3): Replacing Christian McCaffrey and finding better quarterback play are the Cardinal’s most pressing questions entering the offseason. This might not be a perfect team, but trust in coach David Shaw and his staff to pilot Stanford to another season spent in the thick of the Pac- 12 and Rose Bowl hunt.
16. Boise State ( 10- 3): The top- ranked team from the Group of Five ranks again will be a favorite for double- digit wins during the regular season. Look for Brett Rypien to take another step forward and become a top- 10 quarterback nationally. 17. Georgia ( 8- 5): The SEC East Division will be a toss- up, with Georgia and two other teams soon to appear on this list battling for a shot at the conference title. The Bulldogs seem the most likely to take another step forward thanks to quarterback Jacob Eason’s development and the arrival of an outstanding recruiting class.
18. Tennessee ( 9- 4): The Volunteers aren’t far behind Georgia. Much depends on finding a capable successor to quarterback Josh Dobbs and locating the sort of consistency needed to go from Top 25 team to Playoff contender.
19. Louisville ( 9- 4): There’s always reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson, but Louisville’s late swoon raises the issue of whether this team is about more than just a sublime quarterback and offense. While still very much a threat in the ACC, the Cardinals should be placed behind FSU and Clemson in the Atlantic Division. 20. South Florida ( 11- 2): Adding a defense- first coach in Charlie Strong to an impressive offense will keep USF in the mix for 10- plus wins and a New Year’s Six bowl in 2017. There are several strong contenders in the American Athletic Conference, but the Bulls are the preseason favorite.
21. Utah ( 9- 4): Pegging the Utes for a national ranking seems like a safe bet. Whether Utah can do more — such as knock off USC and win the Pac- 12 South Division — remains a question, however, particularly with losses at running back, wide receiver and the defensive line. 22. Florida ( 9- 4): It all comes down to the offense and whether the Gators attack can finally find momentum under coach Jim McElwain and produce at the rate needed to compete for a Playoff berth. That’s still a concern entering McElwain’s third season in charge. 23. West Virginia ( 10- 3): There will be a new quarterback and a different look on defense, especially in the secondary. The Mountaineers are still a threat for a top- three finish in the Big 12 after what might very well be a breakthrough season for Dana Holgorsen.
24. Texas ( 5- 7): Does Texas have the same potential as Tom Herman’s first team at Houston, which went 13- 1 and won the Peach Bowl? Probably not. This team won’t win the Big 12, but a change in culture and a huge uptick in production on offense should find the Longhorns at eight or nine wins in 2017.
25. UCLA ( 4- 8): It almost never pays to have faith in coach Jim Mora and UCLA, but years of strong recruiting and healthy Josh Rosen under center should yield a nice rebound after a horrific 2016 season.