USA TODAY International Edition
WHAT THE SAG AWARDS PORTEND FOR THE OSCARS
With the Screen Actors Guild Awards over and the Oscars less than a month away, a few categories are clearer while others are getting a lot more interesting. Best picture might not be an easy win for La La Land, best actor now has a pair of favorites, and Viola Davis seems untouchable.
The actors had their say, but we’ll see where the rest of the vote lands when the 89th Academy Awards show airs Feb. 26 ( ABC, 7 p. m. ET/ 4 PT). SAGs are often a good predictor for the Oscars because actors make up the largest branch of the voting body.
So who’s a contender and who’s a pretender coming out of Sunday’s SAG ceremony?
‘ HIDDEN FIGURES’ COULD GIVE ‘ LA LA LAND’ A RUN FOR BEST PICTURE. When Oscar nominations were announced, everybody was singing the same tune: La La Land is going to clean up. But with La La missing from the SAG field for outstanding ensemble, the Space Race drama rocketed past Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea as a potential threat.
In Figures’ favor, four of the past six SAG winners have gone on to take best picture, and Braveheart is the only movie to win best picture without a SAG cast nomination since the latter awards were founded in 1995. And while Hidden Figures is probably still an upset pick, voters may veer more toward a film about unsung civil rights heroines than a candy- colored musical love story, given the country’s political climate.
LOOK OUT, CASEY: HERE COMES DENZEL. Manchester by the Sea star Casey Affleck, who had been a clear favorite for best actor, just got some serious competition in Fences’ Denzel Washington, who beat him for the SAG lead- actor award. While Affleck deals with past sexual harassment allegations, Washington’s new addition to his trophy case gives him momentum in this twohorse race. History is also on Washington’s side, with the last 12 SAG winners snagging Oscar.
EMMA STONE BREAKS FROM THE BEST- ACTRESS PACK. Amid a crowded field, La La Land’s Emma Stone put some space between herself and others by following up a Golden Globe win with a SAG lead- actress trophy. Fellow Globe winner Isabelle Huppert ( Elle) and Natalie Portman ( Jackie) are also in the hunt, but SAG has long been a good predictor for this category, with only one winner ( Viola Davis in 2012) in the past seven years not taking an Academy Award, too.
‘ MOONLIGHT’S ALI SHINES AS SUPPORTING ACTOR TO BEAT. What was the biggest scramble of all looks a smidge clearer after Mahershala Ali’s win for Moonlight. A strong candidate from the start of awards season, Ali got beat by Nocturnal Animals’ Aaron Taylor- Johnson at the Globes. Taylor- Johnson didn’t even get an Oscar nod, although his costar Michael Shannon did.
The odds are considerably bet- ter now for Ali than they were, though Hell or High Water’s Jeff Bridges is lurking as a dark horse.
JUST GIVE VIOLA HER OSCAR ALREADY, PEOPLE. Viola Davis looks fairly unstoppable for best supporting actress. Like Brie Larson, Leonardo DiCaprio and Matthew McConaughey in recent years, the Fences actress has run roughshod through awards season and seems destined to receive her first Academy Award for a universally beloved performance. As if she needed the extra help, the past seven supporting SAG honorees took home the golden guy as well.