USA TODAY International Edition
Travel ban could cost $ 18B in tourism
Foreign visitors provide bountiful business for USA, but Trump’s orders might make people rethink their trip
President Trump’s temporary travel ban and an inhospitable political climate could punch an $ 18 billion hole in U. S. tourism by international visitors over the next two years, projections by travel analysts show.
Foreign tourism is a $ 250 billion- a- year business in the United States, and Trump's original and revised executive orders temporarily banning travel from majority Muslim countries — put on hold by federal courts — have dampened interest worldwide in visiting the U. S., travel and tourism executives told USA TODAY.
“The U. S. has put an unwel- come mat at our front door,” said Henry Harteveldt, president of Atmosphere Research Group, which studies travel.
Precipitous declines in airline bookings followed the travel ban announcements Jan. 27 and March 6, and hotels reported less traffic in February.
About 4.3 million fewer international travelers would visit the USA this year because of the bans, a revenue loss of $ 7.4 billion, according to Tourism Economics of Wayne, Pa. An additional 6.3 million visitors and $ 10.8 billion that they would have spent would be lost in 2018, it estimated.
“‘ America first’ rhetoric, which was pronounced during the campaign and Trump’s inauguration speech, is finding consistent expression in policy,” said Adam Sacks of Tourism
Economics. “On multiple fronts — diplomacy, trade, border control, visa policy — international markets are receiving a message that America is no longer a welcoming destination.”
The expected decline marks a reversal from recent years, when foreign visitors rose to 77 million in 2016 from 54 million in 2009, said Roger Dow, CEO of the U. S. Travel Association, which represents airlines, hotels and resorts. He said each visitor spends an average of $ 4,300 over 18 days.
“We’re hearing concern,” Dow said. “Our message to the Trump administration is real simple: ‘ We’re real good at America being closed for terrorism and open for business.’ What we need them to do is say that.”
After the second ban was blocked, Trump told a Nashville audience March 15 that he would appeal all the way to the Supreme Court. “The danger is clear. The law is clear. The need for my executive order is clear,” he said. “The best way to keep foreign terrorists or, as some people would say in certain instances, radical Islamic terrorists from attacking our country is to stop them from entering our country in the first place.”
The administration wants to enact enhanced vetting procedures for all foreign visitors that would remain even after the temporary ban was lifted. That could further discourage foreign tourists as well as people coming to the USA for business and school.
Nearly 600 colleges and universities wrote Feb. 3 to Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly to express concerns about discouraging international students, a major revenue source for universities.
One million international students spend $ 32 billion a year, according to Terry Hartle, a senior vice president for the American Council on Education. Only about 15,000 students would be affected by the travel ban, but Trump’s policies could discourage students from other countries with options to study in the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia, Hartle said.
“It’s an undesirable, self- inflicted wound,” Hartle said.
Business is worried as well. A group of 97 Silicon Valley companies — led by Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Twitter, Yelp and Netflix — argued in one of the lawsuits challenging Trump’s travel ban that the order would make it more difficult to “attract talent, business and investment to the United States.” Other examples of possible downsides to the travel ban: Airlines Reporting Corp. found a relatively low increase of 0.9% in inbound travel to the USA in the first seven weeks of this year, compared with larger gains in each of the previous two years. “This is not a particularly encouraging statistic for the USA,” said Forward-Keys CEO Olivier Jager.
NYC & Co., a tourism and marketing group for the nation’s largest city, forecast 300,000 fewer international visitors this year compared with last year, a loss of $ 600 million in spending and $ 900 million in rippling economic effects. The drop would be the first since the recession in 2008- 09. The group plans to spend $ 3 million to advertise in the United Kingdom, Mexico, Germany and Spain to reinforce that “we’re a place that welcomes everybody,” Deputy Mayor Alicia Glen said.
Over the next three years, Los Angeles could lose 800,000 international visitors and $ 736 million in direct spending because of the perception that visitors aren’t welcome, says Ernest Wooden Jr., CEO for Discover Los Angeles. He said the tourism group plans an international advertising campaign to “roll out the red carpet.”