USA TODAY International Edition
23 million increase in uninsured projected
Premiums under Obamacare replacement predicted to climb by 20%, then decrease in 2020, CBO reports
The Republican bill that would repeal and replace Obamacare, which was passed by the House this month, would lead to 23 million fewer people having health insurance by 2026, according to an analysis from the Congressional Budget Office released late Wednesday afternoon.
That number is 1 million fewer than an estimate in an analysis of a draft version of the bill in March. The previous CBO analysis predicted the draft bill would leave 24 million more people without health insurance than Obamacare would cover.
The legislation is expected to increase insurance premiums by 20% in 2018 and 5% in 2019. By 2020, premiums are expected to decrease. The decrease would vary by state, depending on how the states chose to implement the law.
The analysis points out that for people with pre- existing conditions, “premiums would rise over time, and people who are less healthy ( including those with pre- existing or newly acquired medical conditions) would ultimately be unable to purchase comprehensive nongroup health insurance at premiums comparable to those under current law, if they could purchase it at all.”
The bill as approved would decrease the deficit by $ 119 billion, about $ 32 billion less than the prior version of the bill.
Many House Republicans focused on the overall picture “that the American Health Care Act achieves our mission: lowering premiums and lowering the deficit,” House Speaker Paul Ryan, R- Wis., said.
“We’re on a rescue mission,
and today’s CBO report reinforces what we’ve said before — our American Health Care Act will lower premiums and reduce the deficit,” said House Republican Conference Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R- Wash. “The CBO report doesn’t tell the whole story when it comes to the benefits of this bill, but we’re one step closer to keeping our promise to repeal and replace Obamacare.”
Some Republicans, including Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price, questioned the accuracy of the CBO report.
“The CBO was wrong when they analyzed Obamacare’s effect on cost and coverage, and they are wrong again. In reality, Americans are paying more for fewer health care choices because of Obamacare,” Price said.
“The CBO has a long track record of being way, way off in its modeling, with predictions often differing drastically from what actually happens,” said Mike Reed, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee.
The House narrowly passed the legislation May 4 after adding language negotiated between Rep. Mark Meadows, R- N. C., the chair of the hard- line conservative Freedom Caucus and Tom MacArthur, R- N. J., who until this week chaired the more moderate Tuesday Group. The MacArthur Amendment would give states the ability to waive certain insurance mandates and allow insurance companies to charge more for people with pre- existing conditions.
Though that amendment brought dozens of House conservatives on board, it pushed away moderate members. MacArthur gave up his Tuesday Group leadership post after fallout from some members of the moderate group. The bill garnered enough support — though barely — from Republicans after a last- minute addition of $ 8 billion that would help patients with pre- existing health problems.
Democrats pounced on the new CBO numbers, particularly the number of those who would be uninsured.
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D- Calif., called the score “devastating” and said, “House Republicans have tattooed themselves with a Trumpcare bill that means higher costs, 23 million hardworking Americans losing coverage, shredding key protections, a crushing age tax and stealing from Medicare.”
“The CBO non- partisan, factbased score shows what a horror show this Republican plan is for the people who need health care most,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D- Conn.
Planned Parenthood, which would lose its federal funding for non- abortion services under the bill, called it “the worst legislation for women’s health in a generation,” and NARAL Pro- Choice America tweeted a picture of a dumpster fire with the sentence: “Our official statement on the # CBOScore for # AHCA.”
Ryan has not sent the House bill to the Senate because he was waiting for the final score from the CBO to confirm that it would pass specific Senate rules that allow for the legislation to be passed with a simple majority rather than the usual 60 votes required for Senate legislation. No Democrats are likely to vote for a repeal bill.
Republicans in the Senate have met frequently to compile legislation of their own. Sen. Ted Cruz, R- Texas, has led an effort to bring lawmakers from various sections of the party together. Senators said they are in the very early stages, and their version will be unique.
“Our bill will be different than # AHCA but we will analyze the # CBOSCORE & ensure a smooth transition to better care,” Sen. James Lankford, R- Okla., wrote on Twitter.
Sen. Dean Heller, R- Nev., one of the most vulnerable senators up for re- election in 2018, released a statement after the score’s release saying he did not support the House bill.
“This bill does not do enough to address Nevada’s Medicaid population or protect Nevadans with pre- existing conditions,” Heller said. “The AHCA is a first step, but not the solution; now the Senate is doing its own work to put forth its own ideas that could work for states like Nevada.”
Senate Democrats attempted to connect the House bill to what Senate Republicans were doing.
Sen. Chris Murphy, D- Conn., said he was convinced that the negotiations between Senate Republicans used the House bill as a “framework” because they couldn’t do a completely different bill than the House or House conservatives would not approve the Senate version.
“New @ HHSGov report shows premiums increased 105% under # ObamaCare. Not good! # RepealAndReplace this disaster,” President Trump tweeted with a link to a Health and Human Services report that showed premiums increased under Obamacare.
“Our Republican colleagues are sabataging people’s health care to prove a political point,” Sen. Charles Schumer, D- N. Y., said Wednesday evening.