USA TODAY International Edition
THE SESSIONS DOOMSDAY SCENARIO
Removing the attorney general easiest way to end Justice Department Russia investigation
Many in Washington are baffled by President Trump’s continuing attacks on Attorney General Jeff Sessions, most recently at Tuesday’s news conference with Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri.
Trump is clearly angry that Sessions recused himself from the investigation of Russia’s involvement in the 2016 election. But what does he hope to gain in a one- sided verbal war with a loyal supporter? Does he have a strategy or is he merely venting?
The hope among Republicans is that this tweet storm too shall pass. But there is another possibility, that the president is trying to engineer the termination of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation by first removing the attorney general.
DISTURBING CALCULATIONS
The costs would be immediate and high, but the idea that Trump would act is not far- fetched. Why? The reason should chill every Republican on Capitol Hill to the bone. Trump said that “time will tell” in how he deals with Sessions. His failure to answer direct questions on Sessions’ future is telling enough.
The renewed attacks on Sessions as “weak” and disappointing have convinced many that Trump is trying to get Sessions to voluntarily resign. I believe Sessions would do a disservice by resigning, but he could conclude that the loss of trust and a working relationship with the president makes his continuation as attorney general dangerous for the country.
That would set the scene for a doomsday scenario.
Here is how it would work. If Trump wants to stop the expansion or even the continuation of the special counsel investigation, his problem is not really with the attorney general. When Sessions recused himself, his deputy, Rod Rosenstein, gained authority over the Russia investigation and appointed Mueller.
If ordered to fire Mueller, the assumption is that Rosenstein would either have to be fired or resign ( as did his predecessors in the Nixon administration when ordered to fire Archibald Cox). Presumably, Rosenstein’s subordinates would then follow suit ( as was the case in Nixon). It would continue until Trump could find or appoint a new Robert Bork ( who as solicitor general finally fired Cox).
Removing Sessions is the simple alternative to that messy prospect. If Sessions leaves, the president could name an attorney general without campaign ties and a reason to recuse. He could even make the appointment during a recess, which would avoid the need for Senate confirmation.
Democrats are moving to block a recess appointment with a filibuster, but Trump has been calling for the Senate to restrict the filibuster. If Trump and Senate Republican supporters are able to change the rules, there will be no confirmation needed — allowing GOP senators to publicly express outrage but not requiring them to take any action. RECESS TAKEOVER The recess appointee could then take control of the special counsel investigation and either limit its scope or terminate Mueller.
The immediate response would be calls to reinstate the Independent Counsel Act, but with a Republican House and Senate, Trump may think he can block such a countermove. If so, the only Russia probes remaining would be congressional investigations led by Republicans. Trump could then use the Justice Department to open up investigations of the Clintons and Democrats in their dealings with Russians, Ukrainians and others.
Of course, there would also be immediate calls to draft articles of impeachment, but math is on the president’s side. Impeachment requires 67 votes in the 100- member Senate.
The common assumption in Washington is that the costs of that strategy would be too high. Trump would plummet in the polls, and skittish Republicans could easily bolt on Capitol Hill. But Trump won the 2016 election by defying such assumptions.
He could conclude that with three years to recover, he has little to lose and much to gain in shutting down the special counsel investigation. Of course, the problem is that could hand both houses of Congress to the Democrats after the midterm — with a serious threat of impeachment and removal.
Yet, that would be then and this is now. Trump might believe that his 35% to 40% core of supporters would stick with him, and that’s enough to keep the GOP in line and even secure the nomination for a second term.
Call this political mutually assured destruction. Despite horrific political losses, Trump appears to believe he’ll be the one most likely to crawl out of the radioactive wreckage.