Boise State no longer shoo-in to win Mountain West crown

Leading up to the start of the season, USA TODAY Sports is publishing previews of Football Bowl Subdivision conferences. Today, Mountain West.

There’s a famous story about Kellen Moore that goes like this:

During his first trip to Las Vegas while a Boise State quarterback — as one of the Broncos’ player representatives for the Mountain West Conference media days — Moore arrived a day early. During the evening before he was set to address the masses, he went down to the casino floor to test his luck at the tables.

Not knowing one game from another, Moore shuffled over to a roulette wheel, took his chips and placed the entire stack on 11, his jersey number. The croupier spun the wheel, sending the ball around and around until it landed, yes, on 11.

Moore, amazed, didn’t reach to grab his winnings before the next round. So the ball twirled, bouncing this way and that, before stopping again — on 11. Moore picked up his chips, collected his purse and called it a night.

It used to be that easy for Boise State: Put your chips here, take a step back, collect your winnings. That’s no longer the case.

The most consistent program among the Group of Five ranks no longer rolls out 10- or 11-win seasons with ease; the landscape has changed, and so have the results.

There’s simply too much depth in this league for the Broncos to not break a deep sweat on the road to a New Year’s Six bowl. How about a divisional title? Air Force won the Mountain Division two years ago. Wyoming last fall. This season finds three prime contenders for the top spot, with Colorado State joining the Broncos and Cowboys.

It’s not so easy anymore — not that it ever was easy, per se, though the Broncos made it look that way.

Every week in the Mountain Division contains a potential pitfall: Air Force’s option game, Craig Bohl’s physical blueprint at Wyoming, Colorado State’s inventiveness,

New Mexico’s punishing ground attack.

This is great news for the Mountain West. It’s indicative of the league’s growth as a whole, which places the MWC alongside the American Athletic Conference as the premier members of the Group of Five. No fact speaks stronger about the Mountain West’s current standing than this: Boise State no longer rules with an iron fist.

BEST UNITS

Quarterback: Wyoming. You can easily make the case for Brett Rypien or Nick Stevens, but Josh Allen is destined for big things.

Running back: San Diego State. Colorado State has great depth in Dalyn Dawkins and Izzy Matthews, but Rashaad Penny is the league’s best at his position.

Wide receivers and tight ends: Colorado State. The Rams’ depth and the immediate production found in former junior college transfer Michael Gallup puts them ahead of Boise State.

Offensive line: New Mexico. Four returning linemen with starting experience headline a unit with the potential to match or even exceed its breakout performance of 2016.

Defensive line: Boise State. Led by all-conference contender David Moa, the Broncos’ defensive front bears the responsibility of beefing up last season’s woeful rush defense.

Linebacker: San Diego State. You can set your watch to the Aztecs’ steady linebacker play, which will continue despite losing a star in Calvin Munson.

Secondary: Wyoming. There’s a case to be made for San Jose State, which might have the league’s top cornerback in Andre Chachere, but Wyoming returns all four starters and has an All-America contender in safety Andrew Wingard.

Special teams: San Diego State. The Aztecs have the league’s most trustworthy kicker and an outstanding return man in Penny.

RANKING THE STARTING QUARTERBACKS

1. Josh Allen, Wyoming: Allen will star for one more season before being taken within the first handful of picks in next year’s NFL draft.

2. Brett Rypien, Boise

State: The program’s best quarterback this side of Moore takes aim at his third year in a row earning first-team all-conference honors. 3. Nick Stevens, Colorado

State: A full and healthy season from Stevens could lift the Rams to the top of the MWC and into the thick of the New Year’s Six chase.

4. Christian Chapman, San Diego State: Look for Chapman to assume an even larger role in the offense with the departure of Donnel Pumphrey, though the Aztecs won’t change their runhappy focus.

5. Dru Brown, Hawaii: Brown will get better with each passing snap he takes under Nick Rolovich’s tutelage.

6. Lamar Jordan, New Mexico: Jordan fits what Bob Davie and offensive coordinator Bob DeBesse want from the position.

7. Arion Worthman, Air Force: Worthman deserves the job after leading Air Force to six wins in a row last fall, but Troy Calhoun does have senior Nate Romine in reserve.

8. Kent Myers, Utah State: Will Myers’ final season find him recapturing his sophomore form after an inconsistent 2016 campaign?

9. Chason Virgil, Fresno State: Virgil’s the holdover from the Tim DeRuyter era, but he might just be keeping the seat warm while Jeff Tedford gets Oregon State transfer Marcus McMaryion up to speed.

10. David Cornwell, Nevada: The former Alabama quarterback is the first starter of the Jay Norvell era.

11. Armani Rogers, UNLV: The hype machine is in full swing for the redshirt freshman, who almost certainly will need time and patience to piece together his athletic gifts with the consistency needed to succeed under center.

12. Michael Carrillo, San Jose State: The junior college transfer who was a redshirt last season seems like the safe bet, though first-year coach Brent Brennan could opt to go with one of two freshmen on the depth chart.

GAMES OF THE YEAR

Oregon State at Colorado

State, Saturday. One of the year’s first games marks the debut of Colorado State’s new stadium and the start of the Rams’ push for national recognition. Wyoming at Iowa, Sept. 2.

The first of two out-of-conference games that might come to define Wyoming’s season. Troy at Boise State, Sept. 2.

This is going under the radar as one of the more interesting games of the first full week of the regular season. Colorado State at Alabama, Sept. 16. Good luck. Oregon at Wyoming, Sept. 16. To say the Cowboys are looking forward to hosting the Ducks would be an understatement. Boise State at San Diego

State, Oct. 14. San Diego State is almost a lock to come out of the West Division, though the Broncos would have a number of hurdles still to pass before punching their ticket to the conference title game. Wyoming at Boise State, Oct. 21. A must-win game for either team in the chase for a January bowl. Colorado State at Wyoming, Nov. 4. The Cowboys haven’t forgotten the shellacking they suffered last fall. Boise State at Colorado

State, Nov. 11. This stands alongside the Broncos’ date with Wyoming a month earlier as the defining games of the league’s regular season.

KIRBY LEE, USA TODAY SPORTS Brett Rypien passed for 3,646 yards with 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions as Boise State went 10-3 in 2016. But the Broncos last made the Mountain West Conference title game in 2014.