USA TODAY International Edition
NFC playoff picture focused on South Division
The NFL has entered its postThanksgiving stretch, with five games remaining on each team’s schedule.
No playoff spots have been claimed, and there’s plenty left to sort out.
Here are four takes from Week 12 we’re pushing back on.
The NFC South will have three playoff teams
If the season ended today, the Saints (8-3), Panthers (8-3) and Falcons (7-4) would reach the postseason.
While it’s possible all three could be playing in January, a remaining slate heavy on divisional clashes is likely to leave one team on the outside.
Carolina and New Orleans face off Sunday for the division lead.
The Saints also have two remaining against the Falcons. Atlanta, meanwhile, also has a huge matchup Sunday against the Vikings (9-2) and a season finale against Carolina. The Panthers also play the Vikings in Week 14.
A division champ and a wild-card representative likely go to the teams that stay hot down the stretch. But the NFC West boasts two talented teams in the Rams (8-3) and Seahawks (7-4), so the other wild-card slot could fall to one of them.
Patrick Mahomes still isn’t ready to supplant Alex Smith as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback
The Chiefs are in a free fall. Losers of five of its last six, Kansas City — once the league’s highest-scoring offense during a five-game winning streak to open the season — is in disrepair.
Coach Andy Reid said he’s not considering benching Smith in favor of Mahomes, but it might be time to weigh that possibility.
If the Chiefs opt to play the firstround pick, who has yet to enter a game, they will likely have to live with rookie mistakes. But Mahomes is far more athletically gifted than Smith and has superior arm strength.
Most concerning for the Chiefs is how defenses have caught up to their attack, which is loaded with spread concepts. As tight end Travis Kelce conceded after a loss last week to the Giants, defenses are finding success against Cover 2 — a catch-all description of a zone defense that features two deep safeties, leaving cornerbacks and linebackers responsible for the zones underneath.
The threat of a downfield strike is a necessary component for properly attacking a Cover 2 scheme. With his limited arm strength and conservative style, Smith has seldom capitalized on such throws.
Mahomes might not secure Kansas City in the playoffs, but he just might provide enough of a spark to revive the Chiefs offense.
Jaguars’ loss was just a misstep
Jacksonville battled inconsistency issues early in the season, alternating between victories and losses during Weeks 1-7. A four-game winning streak over the last month was a sign of progress, but it was dashed in a 27-24 road loss to the Cardinals.
The Jaguars rely on their top-ranked defense and sound running game. But when Arizona climbed out to a 13-0 lead in the second quarter, Jacksonville had to divert from its strengths.
Blake Bortles mustered just 160 passing yards, another problematic outing for an offense that ranks 29th in the air. He also led the team in rushing with six carries for 62 yards and a pair of running scores. Aside from that, the rest of the Jaguars ran the ball 16 times for 29 yards.
The Jaguars (7-4) hold the first AFC wild-card seed. They have a shot at winning the AFC South, with a season-finale against the Titans (7-4) looming.
But until Jacksonville gets more out of its passing game and becomes more consistent, it’s at risk of missing out on its first conference title since 1999.
The Packers should try to get Aaron Rodgers back ASAP
Pregame footage of Rodgers whipping passes in sweats roused Packers fans. That the two-time MVP was warming up just six weeks after he suffered a broken collarbone to his throwing shoulder, no doubt, is positive.
But that doesn’t mean Green Bay, 5-6 and the No. 9 seed in the NFC playoff picture, should rush Rodgers into action. Given his placement on injured reserve, he can’t return until a Week 15 game against the Panthers.
Backup quarterback Brett Hundley has been inconsistent. In Green Bay’s 31-28 loss Sunday night to the Steelers, however, Hundley completed 65.4% of his passes and threw for three touchdowns, including a tying drive in the final minutes.
More important, Rodgers has said his primary concern is making sure his bone is fully healed. But until he’s confident in his recovery — and unless the Packers are in a position to make a serious run at a postseason berth — Green Bay shouldn’t be focused on a return.
And with the Packers offensive line in shambles, having allowed the secondmost sacks in the league, leaving Rodgers susceptible to hits isn’t prudent. It’s best to focus on Rodgers’ future, even if that means missing the playoffs.