USA TODAY International Edition
KELLY TO EDWARDS, GRADING NEW HIRES
The thing about coaching hires is, well, you never know how they’re going to pan out. The no-doubt rock star can crater. The underwhelming hire made after four other guys said no can turn out to be the guy who wins championships. Fit matters a lot. And luck, too. Even the surest thing is a risk.
But as a wild turn on the coaching carousel slides to a halt, here’s an assessment of how the schools fared. History shows most of the hires will land somewhere between great and terrible.
A
UCLA, Chip Kelly: The Bruins are the undisputed winners of the carousel. After four years out of the college game, there are questions as to how effective Kelly’s signature up-tempo offense might still be — defenses haven’t exactly caught up with it, but it’s not the discombobulating force as when he introduced it at Oregon — but that pays short shrift to Kelly’s overall ability to build a program’s culture. Nebraska, Scott Frost: Frost will understand Nebraska and its challenges. And he has experience recruiting elite to far-flung locales (see Eugene, Ore.). It seems unlikely anyone can return Nebraska to the glory years. But if Frost can elevate the program past the Minnesotas and Iowas of the Big Ten West and into contention with, say, Wisconsin ... that would be a very nice start on returning to relevance.
Florida, Dan Mullen: Mullen is a former Gators assistant who can now try to do what he accomplished at Mississippi State, only at a school with exponentially more resources. He’ll bring good offense and a reputation for finding and developing quarterbacks to a program that is starving for both. Texas A&M, Jimbo Fisher: During each of the last two years, LSU tried hard to pull Fisher out of Tallahassee, only to be rejected. But the Aggies pulled it off — for a 10-year, $75 million deal. As much as the money, though, it was Fisher’s discontent at Florida State that probably persuaded him to take a job that is, by almost any historical or current accounting, a lesser gig. It doesn’t have to stay that way, though.
B
Florida State, Willie Taggart: Although his career record is 47-50, he rebuilt South Florida’s program. As important, the Floridian has deep recruiting ties in the state. Taggart will have a hard time matching Fisher’s success, but that’s true of anyone in an ACC that has now become Clemson’s domain. Mississippi State, Joe Moorhead: When Mullen left for Florida, athletics director John Cohen quickly rolled through a list of candidates. As impressive, especially considering the fantasies that accompanied other searches: Mississippi State understood what was actually doable. The list was largely coordinators. Will Moorhead be able to match Mullen’s success? It’s a tall order. But he will bring a fun and explosive offense to Starkville. Arkansas, Chad Morris: He’s a Gus Malzahn protégé who’ll run an up-tempo spread (see Clemson, where he was offensive coordinator). He did a nice job building SMU’s program, and the former Texas high school coach is plugged deeply into that state — very important for Arkansas’ recruiting needs.
C
Tennessee, Jeremy Pruitt: The Alabama defensive coordinator has a nice pedigree with stops at FSU and Georgia as well as his time with Nick Saban. But is this the kind of hire the Tennessee fan base was looking for? Pruitt might well be a very good fit in Knoxville, the right guy to take the Vols back to prominence. He’s familiar with the South, and the SEC. But he’s anything but the splash hire so many fans expected. Oregon, Mario Cristobal: His 27-47 record at Florida International doesn’t begin to tell the story of what he accomplished in building the program. In one season as an Oregon assistant he clearly impressed athletics director Rob Mullens. But even with Kelly and Frost off the table, a stability hire wasn’t exactly what the Ducks would have predicted as their best available option. Oregon State, Jonathan Smith: A former Beavers quarterback with a coaching résumé as an assistant to Chris Petersen, Smith now tackles one of the most difficult Power Five jobs. An early plus: Smith has added former coach Mike Riley, fresh off a firing by Nebraska, to his staff. It’s maybe something that could only happen in Corvallis and with Riley. What’s unclear is whether Smith or anyone can turn the Beavers into consistent winners.
Mississippi, Matt Luke: Considering the uncertainty of the NCAA hammer waiting to fall (and which has since happened), it’s not like the Rebels had many options in replacing Hugh Freeze. Luke, a former player, did a nice job during a stint as interim coach in holding the team together (including a win vs. rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl). If his promotion feels like a stopgap, maybe it is. But for Ole Miss, this might have been the best available move.
D
Arizona State, Herm Edwards: Edwards hasn’t coached in college for almost 30 years, or anywhere since 2008. Although it was hard to decipher the jargon in the news release (get ready for the “New Leadership Model”), it appears Edwards’ role is supposed to be something more like general manager than conventional head coach. Arizona State retained offensive coordinator Billy Napier and apparently plans to give the coordinators expanded responsibilities. Arizona State’s gamble — the riskiest of the hiring season, by an exponential factor — seems much more likely to be either a soaring success or a spectacular crash and burn than just another humdrum hire. For that, I guess we should be grateful. It’s going to be fascinating to watch.