USA TODAY International Edition
Nationals’ year of reckoning arrives
Slew of departing free agents could include their GM
WASHINGTON – It’s almost spring training, and while the most powerful man in this city has doctors attesting he’s in fine health, folks around here can’t help but fear this could be the Washington Nationals’ last stand.
This is likely the last year Bryce Harper wears a Nationals uniform before he departs for the greatest riches in baseball history.
The last year before All-Star second baseman Daniel Murphy and veteran starter Gio Gonzalez hit free agency.
The last year the surrounding teams in the National League East all stink again, with their focus shifting from rebuilding to winning.
And perhaps most scary for the Nationals, the last year with their architect, Mike Rizzo, president of baseball operations and general manager, still in office.
While the baseball world is focused on the 2018-19 free agent class of Harper, Manny Machado, Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel, Rizzo is hitting free agency, too.
Rizzo has been the mastermind of the Nationals organization while operating under rather peculiar circumstances.
It’s an ownership that obliterates managers, putting them in a rinse and spin cycle, employing their seventh in 13 years after firing Dusty Baker despite Rizzo’s objections and hiring Dave Martinez. No manager has lasted more than two full seasons since Frank Robinson, who inherited the job while the team was located in Montreal.
It’s an ownership that has the coziest relationship with powerful agent Scott Boras, with 40% of their roster Boras clients. Rizzo was told they didn’t have the money for a closer last winter after Kenley Jansen resisted their overtures, only to suddenly have enough in spring training to sign catcher Matt Wieters, who happens to be a Boras client.
It’s an ownership group that has one of the most respected GMs in the game, leading the Nationals to four division titles in the past six years and producing the best winning percentage by any GM in baseball since 2012, but hasn’t had a single conversation about making him part of their future.
Rizzo, 57, is earning $2.5 million in the final year of a five-year, $10 million contract — the last two years simply being club options. While the Nats say they admire his work, they have yet to open contract negotiations, with his deal expiring Oct. 31.
“Mike has been an integral member of our organization for the last decade, and we feel fortunate to have him leading our baseball operations,” Mark Lerner, Nationals vice chairman and principal owner, said in a written statement to USA TODAY. “He and his staff have worked diligently to build our organization into one of Major League Baseball’s perennially elite clubs.
“Mike’s contract will be addressed in the normal course of business as we have done in the past.”
It’s not a heartwarming endorsement, but if they simply are making a business decision, they might want to consider that the value of the Nationals franchise has risen from $406 million when Rizzo became GM in 2009 to $1.6 billion, according to Forbes.
The longer ownership waits, the bigger the risk, with several clubs eagerly awaiting Rizzo’s potential free agency.
And the cost of front office smarts is going way up.
Theo Epstein received a five-year, $50 million contract a year ago from the Chicago Cubs. Brian Cashman got a five-year, $25 million contract with equity from the New York Yankees this winter. Alex Anthopoulos just signed a four-year contract with the Atlanta Braves. Even San Diego Padres GM A.J. Preller just got a three-year extension.
The only thing missing from Rizzo’s résumé is a World Series, with the Nats failing to win a postseason series.
“When you look at what we accomplished,” Rizzo says, “it’s really unsung and under-appreciated. I’m so proud of what we’ve accomplished here. I like it here. I love the city. I love the team I put together. I like being a GM in the NL East. And I want to stay here. I just think I deserve to be treated like some of the best GMs in the game are, too.
“I know we haven’t won the World Series, but I get tired of hearing how we can’t win the big one or we can’t get out of the first round. We haven’t had that many chances.
“We were without baseball for 35 years here, and we cranked it up pretty good.
“No, we haven’t won a World Series, and in the real world regular-season stats don’t mean (expletive), but you look at our consistency of excellence, knowing what it takes to win, and I think we’ve exemplified that.
“We’re pretty damn good at what we do.”
Rizzo inherited a team that won 59 games and in the last five years has produced the second-most victories in baseball. The only team that’s won more division titles since 2011 are the Dodgers, but the Nats’ payroll has paled in comparison, spending $60 million less than the Dodgers last year. They have crossed the luxury tax threshold just once in franchise history. Why, the only team in baseball that’s had at least a .550 winning percentage since 2011 and spent less are the St. Louis Cardinals.
“I’ve been extremely impressed,” Chicago White Sox GM Rick Hahn said. “Obviously, he built that club up from having the first pick in back-to-back years (netting Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper) that’s become a perennial contender for the World Series every year.
“But it’s not just Harper and Strasburg. It’s what they’ve been able to do via trade and free agency, scouting and developing the players they drafted. You look at his track record via the trade, and it’s been outstanding, which is difficult to maintain over an extended period of time.”
Let’s see, there was the heist in which Rizzo acquired shortstop Trea Turner and starter Joe Ross for Steven Souza and Travis Ott in the three-team deal in December 2014 with the Tampa Bay Rays and San Diego Padres. There was the Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos swap with the Minnesota Twins in 2010. The Alex Meyer for Denard Span deal with the Twins in 2012. Grabbing Gio Gonzalez from the Oakland Athletics in 2011.
The scouting and sabermetric worlds even agree on Rizzo’s moves. Players in Rizzo’s trades have generated 73.4 Wins Above Replacement compared with a 48.0 WAR by those who departed.
Yet Rizzo is a scout’s scout at heart, the son of veteran scout Phil Rizzo. He spent 13 years as an area scout before becoming the Arizona Diamondbacks scouting director when they won the 2001 World Series, leaving for the Nats in 2006.
“When we took over the operations, we needed as much brainpower as we could get,” said former Nats president Stan Kasten, who hired Rizzo and is now president of the Dodgers. “He was really the first big hire we made. And I think the best hire.
“You look at that team, and they’ve been so good for the last five years, and that’s because of Mike and the front office he rebuilt. He does it as well as anybody in the sport.”
We’ll see in the upcoming season whether Rizzo is rewarded, or kicked to the curb, when they will be relying on a rookie manager and, of course, several of Boras’ prized clients.
Rizzo insists they are not a fallback plan for Boras’ remaining unsigned players, in particular closer Greg Holland, starter Jake Arrieta or outfielder J.D. Martinez. Now, if the market plummets, they’re all ears, but Rizzo envisions this team going into the season with their current personnel.
“People think that Scott Boras is pulling the wool over our eyes,” Rizzo says. “But come on, you don’t know me. Scott has good players, and we have a propensity to get deals with him, but that’s it.
“I really want to win a World Series, most of all, for two of my oldest fans in the world: (92-year-old Nats owner) Ted Lerner and my (89-year-old) dad. To see their excitement would mean everything to me.
“Hopefully this is the year.”
The year the Nats finally win, and the year the Nats ownership commits to the man responsible.