La Niña winds down, ushering in ‘La Nada’ for spring

Climate troublemaker La Niña, which is partly responsible for the extreme drought now scorching the southwestern U.S., is expected to fade away over the next few months, scientists said.

In its place will be the so-called neutral phase of the Pacific Ocean climate pattern officially known as “ENSO” (El Niño-Southern Oscillation).

The climate pattern, marked by either unusually warm or unusually cool sea water in the central Pacific Ocean, can affect weather in the U.S. and around the world.

The La Niña phase, defined by colder-than-average ocean temperatures in the Pacific, is the opposite of El Niño.

ENSO-neutral, colloquially known as “La Nada,” is the midpoint between El Niño and La Niña and occurs when temperatures are near average in the Pacific Ocean.

The “in between” ocean state of ENSO can be frustrating for long-range forecasters.

“It’s like driving without a decent road map — it makes forecasting difficult,” said climatologist Bill Patzert of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

As for what all this means for spring weather in the United States, the outlook from the Climate Prediction Center generally favors dry, warm weather across the southern tier of the nation and cooler, wetter weather across the northern tier.

“It’s like driving without a decent road map — it makes forecasting difficult.”

Bill Patzert

Climatologist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory