Dems won’t win 2018 if California is model

Haven’t they learned from the intra-GOP war?

If you’ve been in politics long enough, you’ve heard the phrase, “As goes California, so goes the nation.” In the case of the 2018 midterm elections, this could spell bad news for Democrats and good news for Republicans.

It wasn’t long ago that Democrats openly and almost giddily mused about a potential 40-seat pickup in the House, nearly double the 24 seats they need to retake the majority. However, recent weeks have given them reason to rethink their lofty expectations.

Democrats’ advantage on the generic ballot preference goes up and down and often falls to single digits. Even more troubling for their prospects, however, is the state of the Democratic Party in California.

At their convention in San Diego last month, California Democrats made some absolutely puzzling decisions. In a stunning rebuke of the establishment, they refused to endorse Sen. Dianne Feinstein. She won only 37% support from convention delegates, far short of the 60% she needed.

Feinstein is still the heavy favorite to win re-election in November. But the rejection of this political icon is a potentially important data point in the civil war brewing within the national Democratic Party between the base and establishment. Have Democrats not learned anything from watching the war within the Republican Party?

There are other signs that California Democrats do not have their act together. For instance, the San Diego-area 49th congressional district is considered one of the top battlegrounds in the country. For almost two decades, it has been represented by my former boss, Republican Rep. Darrell Issa. In January, Issa announced that he’d retire at the end of his term.

Since then, the situation has deteriorated for Democrats. Under California’s jungle primary system, the top two vote-getters go on to the general election regardless of party. Now there are fears that so many Democrats are running, they’ll divide the vote and a Democrat might not make the top two.

In a completely botched effort to narrow the field, one candidate was prepared to leave the congressional primary and run for a local office, but inexplicably failed to review the residency guidelines and missed the cutoff to qualify for the local election by a single day. Another did drop out, but that still leaves four relatively unknown Democrats running against a better known Republican lineup.

The Issa district isn’t an isolated situation, either. Seven Democrats are running in the Orange County district held by retiring Rep. Ed Royce. Four Democrats are challenging Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, also in Orange County.

How can a party so divided hope to defeat the Republicans in November?

Complicating matters, Democratic candidates will once again face the Nancy Pelosi litmus test. Since 2010, Republicans have likely spent more than $150 million on attack ads tying Democrats to their House leader — and it has worked every time. Pelosi has gone from a 39% approval rating in 2013 to 29% in 2017. President Trump calls her the GOP’s “secret weapon.”

Clearly, the Democrats are their own worst enemies, but we knew that because we watched them help put Donald Trump in the White House.

On paper, Democrats have every reason to be optimistic about taking back the House. History is certainly in their favor. Since 1962, the average loss for the president’s party is 40 seats when the president’s approval rating is below 50% — and Trump’s is at 41%.

And yet, an icon like Feinstein can’t even get her state party’s endorsement. With prime pickup opportunities in reach, Democrats can’t even narrow the field in competitive districts and could be left out of the general election entirely. And the leader of congressional Democrats is the weapon of choice for Republicans to use against them.

If Republicans somehow survive the midterms with their majority intact, Democrats will emerge demoralized and asking themselves: What went wrong? The answers could very well lie in California.