North Korea sets risky trap for Trump

This summit shouldn’t happen. Maybe it won’t.

President Trump’s decision to participate in a summit with North Korean despot Kim Jong Un is dangerous. If it happens and Trump succeeds in beginning the denuclearization of North Korea, he will be far worthier of the Nobel Peace Prize than Barack Obama ever was. The chances of this are roughly zero, but it’s not impossible. More likely, this will all end in diplomatic disaster.

Before thinking about all the ways this summit could go wrong, the president’s critics owe it to him to try to consider the few ways it could go right. At the least, this decision forestalls war for the moment. Another day of peace on the Korean Peninsula is a worthy goal and a far better approach than the childish taunts that have characterized the president’s approach so far.

Denuclearization is almost certain to fall off the table quickly, but one positive outcome would be if North Korea tries a bait-and-switch, in which they backtrack from denuclearization but agree to halt, indefinitely, all testing and production of an intercontinental ballistic missile in exchange for sanctions relief. If the president manages even this much, his gamble might pay.

Most likely, however, is that the White House is about to walk right into a trap the North Koreans have been laying for American presidents since the 1990s. A one-on-one summit with one of the world’s weirdest and most irresponsible leaders would be a huge reward for a regime that has long chided other rogues and dictators for their weakness in dealing with the U.S. Such a meeting would legitimize not only Kim’s regime but also his methods. No matter how the White House spins it, the North Koreans will claim victory.

This isn’t to say that direct meetings are not a good idea. Sanctions are biting deeply in North Korea, and China is clearly fed up with its bizarre ally. Even so, a summit should be a reward for months, even years, of careful work and actual progress. Meetings at lower levels should progress to more senior principals, and then to heads of state.

Instead, we have yet another decision, much like the incoherent announcement of tariffs, that looks like sheer impulse from a commander in chief who seems frustrated to be told nuclear diplomacy is more complicated than running a hotel or a golf course.

Worse yet, the short run-up for a May meeting means this will be a summit without an agenda, which always increases the chances of a diplomatic train wreck. There is no evidence that was given any serious analysis by military or diplomatic advisers. The Pentagon seemed to be in the dark, and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson made clear hours before the announcement that no such meeting was on the horizon.

Given North Korea’s track record, here is what is more likely to happen: Kim and Trump will meet, and Kim’s regime will reap hours of footage of an American president shaking the hand of the “supreme leader” that will run forever in North Korea and go viral around the world. Kim will play the gracious host and agree to everything, knowing this kind of flattery will trigger a torrent of praise from Trump and perhaps even elicit reckless talk about lifting sanctions. (The North Koreans will surely have done their homework on the president’s psyche, which is on display all day, every day, on social media.)

After the summit, Pyongyang will dig in on further negotiations. When those talks fail, Kim will blame Trump, leaving the president bewildered and angry. Trump will go back to his insulting ways, which will pave the way for Kim to exit any preliminary agreements. The whole business will fall apart, and North Korea will look like the co-equal of a U.S. president who has been humbled before America’s allies and embarrassed before its enemies. The unveiling of a functional, nucleararmed North Korean ICBM will follow.

I hope I’m wrong. Talking to the North Koreans is certainly a far better idea than war. Trump and Kim could surprise us all and begin the process of removing nuclear weapons from North Korea. But it’s far too early to think about any calls to Oslo just yet.