USA TODAY International Edition
West playoff race: Who’s real, who’s fake?
No matter what happens to the NBA’s power structure in June, the 2017-18 campaign has already reminded us of this: Narratives are often wrong.
Defending champion Golden State was supposed to be even better in Year No. 2 with Kevin Durant, and the rest of the league was supposed to be left clutching their shorts as they tried to keep up. Yet with less than a month remaining in the regular season, Houston (54-14) has a 2 1⁄2-game lead on the Warriors (52-17) in the West and Toronto is tied with them in terms of league-wide records.
In that vein, here’s a question that would have seemed unfathomable a few months ago: Are Portland and Utah the only teams capable of putting a scare into the West’s elite come playoff time?
Here’s what you need to know about two of the league’s best under-the-radar teams:
PORTLAND (42-26)
The Trail Bazers entered Saturday on an 11-game winning streak and with a firm grip on the third spot in the West. Damian Lillard (26.8 points, 6.6 assists a game) has entered the second-tier of the James Harden-led MVP conversation, with backcourt mate C.J. McCollum (21.8 points), and big man Jusuf Nurkic (14.1 points, 8.1 rebounds) contributing for coach Terry Stotts.
There has been no shortage of statement games for Portland. The most recent was a domination of Cleveland, with wins over Golden State, Oklahoma City and Minnesota during this winning streak as well.
As is so often the case, the great separator has been Portland’s much-improved defense.
After ranking in the bottom half of the NBA in defensive rating for four of Stotts’ past five seasons, they’re tied for seventh at 104.1 points allowed per 100 possessions, up from 21st last season. It’s also worth noting their net rating (plus 2.1, 10th), which takes into account offense and defense, isn’t proportionate to their record. Their schedule is about to get a whole lot tougher, too, with a five-game stretch starting Sunday that includes the Los Angeles Clippers, Houston, Boston, Oklahoma City and New Orleans.
UTAH (39-30)
The Jazz, who pivoted well after losing Gordon Hayward, have won 20 of their past 22 while posting the league’s best net rating (plus-13.2) during that span; they’re fifth in net rating overall at plus-4.7, behind Golden State, Houston, Toronto and Boston.
Their dominant defense, though, is what really jumps off the NBA.com/ stats page: They’ve allowed 94.5 points per 100 possessions during that span, a mark that not only leads the NBA but is nearly eight points better than the second-place Raptors (102.1). Take a bow, Rudy Gobert.
The 7-1 Frenchman returned from a long absence around then. He spent the past two months making a compelling case for the league’s Defensive Player of the Year award. And yes, we’re aware he’s missed 26 games with knee injuries and is on pace to finish the regular season with just 56 games played.
In terms of the award’s history, a Gobert victory would be monumental. San Antonio’s Kawhi Leonard holds the mark for fewest games played for a DPOY winner (64 in 2014-15). Still, no one – not Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid or reigning champ Draymond Green of the Warriors or anyone else – is having this kind of impact on their team’s defensive unit.
In other words, the Hayward party is long since over.
“We’re past that point,” Gobert said recently about how they recovered from the loss of Hayward last summer. “It doesn’t matter who’s with me, or who’s not with me. I’m just trying to win. I’m not worried about that.”
The 25-year-old is thrilled that Jazz general manager Dennis Lindsey didn’t choose to go the rebuilding route. They landed rookie sensation Donovan Mitchell in a draft-night trade with Denver, made key freeagent signings and trades, continued to focus on player development, and now find themselves looking as dangerous as any team.
“Just try to teach players how to make winning plays, not only good basketball plays but winning plays,” Gobert said in explaining coach Quin pity Snyder’s system. “Teach every single one to help the team win games. A lot of teams are very good doing skill work, strength work. But if you want to win, you have to teach a player how to win. That’s why I don’t believe in tanking, all that stuff. I believe you learn how to win by winning. You don’t learn how to win by losing on purpose to get a 19year-old who you’ve never seen.”
Beyond Gobert, Mitchell is the one to watch. The Louisville product has been challenging Philadelphia’s Ben Simmons for the Rookie of the Year honors. Ricky Rubio, Joe Ingles, new addition Jae Crowder, and Derrick Favors have been coming up big on a nightly basis as well.
THE LESS-THREATENING OTHERS
Meanwhile, the other would-be threats in the West among teams currently in playoff position have serious health concerns killing their candidacies.
Oklahoma City (41-29): Won 10 of its past 13, but defense remains a glaring problem after Andre Roberson’s season-ending knee injury on Jan. 27.
Their weakness has been masked lately because, they played terrible offenses: Memphis (29th in offensive rating), Sacramento twice (28th), Orlando (24th), Dallas (19th), Phoenix twice (30th), San Antonio (18th), and Atlanta (26th). Still, their defensive rating in that stretch (106.2) pales in comparison with the 1,037 minutes spent with Roberson on the floor (96.4) this season.
The Thunder were fifth in defensive rating (103.3) at the time of Roberson’s injury and are 15th (106.9) in the seven weeks since. Their net rating was fifth in the NBA when Roberson went down (plus-3.9) and is 17th since (plus-1.2).
Minnesota (40-29): Is 4-3 since four-time All-Star Jimmy Butler suffered a torn meniscus but playoff hopes won’t float unless he returns soon. According to coach Tom Thibodeau, Butler – who underwent surgery to repair the meniscus on Feb. 25 – recently started running again, and it remains possible he’ll return before the end of the regular season.
New Orleans (39-29): Lost center DeMarcus Cousins to a season-ending Achilles tendon tear on Jan. 26 and are 12-8 with him out. Since then, Anthony Davis has played at an MVP level while averaging a league-leading 31.1 points to go with 12.8 rebounds, 3.2 blocks and 2.3 steals. Still, it’s tough to see New Orleans making serious noise once they get there.
San Antonio (39-30): Hasn’t missed the playoffs since the year before Tim Duncan was drafted in 1997 but in danger of doing that after losing 11 of their last 16 games. The main source of the struggle, as it has been all season, is the quadriceps tendinopathy injury that has limited Kawhi Leonard to nine games. The 26-yearold who finished third in MVP voting last season hasn’t played since Jan. 13, though a return soon appears unlikely.