USA TODAY International Edition
Bumgarner’s injury seals fate for Giants
The window is now shut.
The Giants kept trying to extend their stretch of glory this decade, kept hoping the horses that carried them to three World Series championships since 2010 had at least one more run left in them.
It seemed like a long-shot pursuit, and they certainly took a counter-intuitive approach by adding veterans to an aging team when the rest of baseball is going decidedly younger. But the notion of extracting a playoff berth out of an accomplished group of players in their early 30s was at least intriguing.
Until Friday. When staff ace Madison Bumgarner broke a bone in his pitching hand upon getting hit by a line drive in his final start of the spring, the Giants’ fate for the season was essentially sealed.
Barring a major surprise, the Giants won’t make a fifth consecutive even-year postseason appearance. The core group responsible for bringing multiple championship parades to San Francisco figures to be disbanded.
That’s how consequential Bumgarner’s injury was. He was the one player the Giants could not afford to lose for an extended period, perhaps even more indispensable than Buster Posey.
This is what the All-Star catcher said during Bumgarner’s nearly threemonth-long absence last season due to a sprained left shoulder and bruised ribs suffered in a dirt-bike accident: “It’s hard to put a number on the value of an ace like him and what he brings. Obviously there’s those days he’s out there, but also the psychological aspect of it that other teams know, ‘Hey, we don’t have to face Bumgarner.’ I think that plays into the equation as well.”
Not to minimize Posey’s impact. He does exceptional work behind the plate and remains an accomplished hitter. But San Francisco has an experienced backup in Nick Hundley, and the offense has been reinforced enough that it should improve on last year’s feeble output with or without Posey.
The rotation, on the other hand, already looked shaky before Bumgarner’s unlucky break. Johnny Cueto, initially penciled in to follow him in the rotation, is coming off an injury-shortened season in which he yielded a 4.52 ERA. The fourth and fifth spots were to be manned by Ty Blach and Christ Stratton, who have combined for one full season in the majors and will have to move up. To compound matters, No. 3 starter Jeff Samardzija will miss about a month with a chest muscle strain.
That means left-hander Derek Holland, in camp on a minor league contract, likely will get a rotation spot. The other one might go to one of two rookies, Tyler Beede and Andrew Suarez, and neither one enjoyed a stellar spring. Beede put up a 10.80 ERA, Suarez a 7.62 mark. A rotation that ranked eighth in the National League last season with a 4.58 ERA has gotten appreciably worse. And a bullpen that will be counted on to pick up the starters is depending on two key figures, closer Mark Melancon and lefty Will Smith, who are coming back from arm surgery.
It’s not a recipe for success. Although Bumgarner estimated he would be out four to six weeks, chances are it will be closer to two months.
By the time he returns, the Giants might be buried below the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Rockies in the powerful NL West.
The Giants were off to a 6-10 start last season when Bumgarner got hurt April 20. They went 29-46 in his absence on the way to a 64-98 record, the secondworst mark in the San Francisco era. The Giants are 94-140 since the 2016 AllStar break, the majors’ worst record.
If they’re playing at that level in July, the dismantling of their roster will begin. New outfielder Andrew McCutchen, a free agent after the season, might be the first to go. Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford could follow him out the door. Cueto might draw interest, depending on how he’s performing. The same goes for Hunter Pence. Second baseman Joe Panik will have suitors as well.
Even Bumgarner, if healthy and pitching up to his usual standards, could be put on the trade block if the Giants decide to go for the full tear-down. The player they seem most unlikely to move is Posey, the face of the franchise.
Regardless, the club was facing some major changes come 2019. Bumgarner’s injury has accelerated that clock.