Could the Arctic summer be ice free by 2050?

One of the big questions about global warming is when — or if — the Arctic will be ice-free each summer.

A study published last week said if the world warms 7.2 degrees this century, the Arctic will likely have a threemonth, ice-free period each summer by 2050. It would be a worst-case scenario never seen in recorded history.

By the end of the century, the icefree summer could jump to five months a year, the study said.

The shrinking sea ice is caused by rising global temperatures that stem from the burning of fossil fuels, such as oil, gas and coal, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Sea ice floats on the ocean and has an annual cycle of freezing in the winter and melting each summer.

Why does it matter? Arctic ice not only is important to polar bears and other wildlife, but it also helps regulate the planet’s temperature. Recent studies also said that Arctic sea ice — and the lack of it — can wreak havoc with weather patterns as far away as the United States.

A visible sign of climate change is the drastic decline in Arctic sea ice. Since 1979, the minimum annual area of sea ice in the Arctic has dropped by about 40%, as measured each September.

This study, which used computer models to estimate future warming and melting, outlined a range of possibilities for Arctic sea ice, depending on how much Earth’s temperature rises.

If the world warms only 2.7 degrees, the goal set by the Paris Climate Agreement, the probability of ice-free summers drops dramatically. The study was published in the peer-reviewed British journal Nature Climate Change.