MLB playoff shot already bleak for nine teams

As much as Major League Baseball likes to tout its parity, a substantial number of teams entered the season with what seemed like virtually no shot at reaching the playoffs.

Now we have confirmation.

As the season approaches its fourth week, nine clubs have less than a 2% chance to play in October, according to FanGraphs’ playoff projections.

Even in the era of tanking — or, building for the future, if you prefer — that is a staggering number, nearly a third of all teams. By comparison, at a similar stage last season, five clubs were in that statistically hopeless predicament.

Now, projections certainly have plenty of margin for error, as the Twins will be quick to point out. FanGraphs gave them a 5.2% chance of getting to the postseason after their 11-11 start last year, and the upstart Twins earned a wild-card berth after losing 103 games the previous season.

And yes, the Brewers were essentially dismissed after splitting their first 24 games in 2017, given no better than a 3.7% probability of playing in the postseason. Milwaukee came within a win of forcing a tiebreaker for a wild-card spot.

But what truly stands out this year is not just the number of non-competitors, but their wretchedness.

Or, did you not notice that the Reds waited till Monday to notch their fourth win of the year? Five starting pitchers on other clubs have that many by themselves.

The Reds (4-18 going into Tuesday), losers of at least 94 games in each of the past three years and well on their way to topping that figure this season, are one of four teams already 10 or more games below .500. They’re joined in that dubious company by the Marlins (5-17), Orioles (6-17) and Royals (5-15).

The Padres were given a puncher’s chance in the preseason by Fangraphs — a 2.6% postseason shot for a club that splurged on first baseman Eric Hosmer but skimped on starting pitching, as rebuilding teams tend to do.

Yet they have played surprisingly bad baseball in sinking to the bottom of the National League West, staring up at at least three bona fide contenders.

The not-so-fine nine’s playoff chances, according to FanGraphs: White Sox (0.0%), Marlins (0.0%), Reds (0.0%), Royals (0.1%), Tigers (0.1%), Orioles (0.2%), Padres (0.5%), Rays (1.1%), Rangers (1.3%).

Go ahead and make your offseason plans, folks.

It’s not as if these teams are mostly losing tight games and might be about to turn things around. Five of them have run differentials of -44 or worse. They have been on the wrong end of plenty of routs.

Even the Rangers, previously reliable contenders and not among the group of clubs strip-mining their for potential future gains, have been caught in the malaise. Not only have they dropped to fifth place in the American League West, they’ve scored 40 fewer runs than their opponents and are 3-11 at home.

What all this imbalance means, other than a plethora of mostly empty ballparks in the final two months of the regular season, is only about 20 teams will be truly vying for the 10 playoff spots over the next several weeks, and that number will shrink significantly by the All-Star Game.

Sellers will abound at the trade deadline, likely much sooner than that, and fortuitous scheduling might play a bigger role in who qualifies for the postseason than in the past.

Take a look at the standings and try not to wince over the disparity between the haves and the have-nots. It’s not a pretty picture.

JOHN GELIEBTER/USA TODAY SPORTS Scooter Gennett is hitting .270, several points below his career average, for the Reds, who are struggling.