USA TODAY International Edition
First fall forecast on league races
Alabama brings back more than enough talent to repeat as Southeastern Conference champions. Wait, the Crimson Tide didn’t win the SEC? Maybe this exercise won’t be easy as I hoped.
It’s late June. Media days are a month away. Football is under three months away. It’s time for predictions and prognostications, but I’m giving myself a little bit of room to hedge my bets.
This Top 10 list asks: Who will be the Football Bowl Subdivision conference champions? To give myself an out once these go south, the list will go in order of most to least confidence, starting with the Atlantic Coast Conference.
1. Clemson (ACC)
It’s not as if the ACC is a weak league. It’s just that Clemson, even with a slight quarterback competition underway, looks like the class of the conference on both sides of the ball. The Tigers are a step ahead of Florida State in the Atlantic Division. Miami (Fla.) is a threat out of the Coastal, but despite the program’s growth under Mark Richt it’s too soon to expect the Hurricanes to unseat Dabo Swinney’s team from atop the conference standings. Clemson winning another ACC crown feels like an extremely sure bet. (Don’t actually bet on it.)
2. Florida Atlantic (C-USA)
Only one of FAU’s nine league wins in Lane Kiffin’s debut season came by single digits. Overall, the Owls carry a 10game winning streak into 2018. What can derail this team from another Conference USA title? Maybe uncertainty at quarterback, though Kiffin has two high-profile transfers to choose from for his new starter. Maybe Marshall’s defense will be an issue; the Herd were the only Conference USA opponent to get within 14 points of FAU a year ago. Maybe North Texas and its offense? It seems fair to assume none of those things happen.
3. Boise State (Mountain West)
The Broncos are one of the nation’s most experienced teams and the early favorite to earn the access-bowl bid to a New Year’s Six bowl handed to the best team in the Group of Five. San Diego State might have something to say about that. Boise State’s overall talent level and key senior contributors would make anything less than an MWC title a disappointment.
4. Washington (Pac-12)
Washington’s going to rattle off a run of Pac-12 titles starting in 2018, behind a senior-laden offense and a defense that ranks comfortably among the most experienced on the Power Five level. In what looks like a down year for the conference, the Huskies’ talent and coaching acumen stand out. The biggest worry is Stanford, which returns one of the nation’s biggest stars in running back Bryce Love.
5. Central Florida (American Athletic)
The coaching change from Scott Frost to Josh Heupel is a hurdle the Knights need to overcome. Aiding that task is a roster more than gifted enough to make another unbeaten run through AAC play. There will be more blowouts than close calls, though South Florida and Temple are threats in the East Division and one of Memphis, Houston or Navy could give UCF all it can handle in a hypothetical conference championship game.
6. Alabama (SEC)
Winning the SEC isn’t a prerequisite for winning the national title, as the Tide have illustrated a few times under Nick Saban. And the SEC West will again be a hassle, with not just Auburn there to defend its division title but Mississippi State a likely second-half factor should LSU fail to crack more than seven wins during the regular season. Oh, and there’s Georgia in the East, though the Bulldogs have a few question marks to answer.
7. Toledo (Mid-American)
The very nature of #MACtion makes preseason predictions inherently useless. Toledo needs a new quarterback to replace a record-setter in Logan Woodside but brings back enough talent and experience to again be the favorite to wear the MAC crown.
8. Oklahoma (Big 12)
Quarterback Kyler Murray’s MLB future doesn’t really alter things for Oklahoma in 2018, since he won’t leave for the Oakland Athletics until after his junior season. Yet any program that loses an all-timer — as Baker Mayfield was at OU — is bound to take at least a subtle step back. That opens up the Big 12 race to at least one other contender, with TCU the likeliest to make a run at the Sooners’ ongoing ownership of the conference.
9. Arkansas State (Sun Belt)
Picking the Red Wolves to be in the mix is an easy choice: ASU has reached seven bowl games in a row under four head coaches. The team returns the league’s best quarterback in Justice Hansen. But the Sun Belt has a few other teams with the potential to take home the conference title, led by Appalachian State and Troy, making the Red Wolves’ home date with the Mountaineers on Oct. 9 perhaps the league’s most impactful game during the regular season.
10. Wisconsin (Big Ten)
There’s a little team named Ohio State that might end up a factor in the Big Ten chase. The Buckeyes got the better of Wisconsin in last year’s title game and might end up taking a step forward on offense despite the decline in experience at quarterback in the move from J.T. Barrett to Dwayne Haskins. But the Badgers have their quarterback, a Heisman Trophy contender at running back, the nation’s top offensive line and a defense with enough of a track record to expect another top-flight finish.