Many Republicans fear overturning Roe

Trump may deliver on his promise, regardless

“I’m like a dog chasing cars, I wouldn’t know what to do if I caught one.” That famous line from the Joker in “The Dark Knight” could well be delivered by dozens of Republican senators this month. For decades, Republican politicians have run on pro-life platforms and promises to reverse Roe v. Wade with a pro-life majority on the Supreme Court. That mantra was picked up most recently by President Donald Trump, who pledged to supporters that overturning the ruling “will happen, automatically” because he would appoint only pro-life justices to the Supreme Court.

The problem for Republicans is that Trump could actually succeed with the nominee he announces Monday to replace Justice Anthony Kennedy.

Many Republicans say privately it is the last thing they want to happen, given the potential for backlash in fall congressional elections. Polls put public support for Roe v. Wade as high as 70 percent, with a majority opposing a nominee who wants to reverse it.

That includes many of those suburban moms critical to the Republican majority. It is one thing to chase a court and another thing to catch one.

The biggest concern in Washington is that Trump did not get the memo on sounding pro-life without actually being pro-life. One of the most fascinating aspects of the Trump administration is the remarkably high number of promises that Trump has actually kept. Voters are used to presidents simply discarding promises once they assume office.

Given his reputation for hyperbole and distortion, few really expected Trump to play straight with voters. Yet he has assembled an impressive record, from tax cuts to drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to dismantling Obamacare; from cracking down on illegal immigration and trade he calls unfair, to moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, to rolling back environmental and other regulations.

If Trump were to deliver on reversing Roe, he would have accomplished something that five Republican presidents, including Ronald Reagan, could not achieve for decades. In other words, Trump might just mean it. That is a problem for many senators.

Republican senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski support abortion rights, and Collins has said that a nominee who would overturn Roe would “not be acceptable.” The question is whether she is serious.

For his part, Trump has announced that he “probably won’t” ask any nominee where he or she stands on the case. This would allow all sides to have plausible deniability, though virtually everyone on Trump’s list is believed to oppose the reasoning of Roe. As a result, the only way for Collins to be sure about the ruling is to demand assurances from the nominee that the decision will be preserved.

Since 1973, Roe has been the perpetual motion machine of American politics. It is likely to remain so for the next 50 years — regardless of the nominee. Even if Trump’s nominee were to vote to overturn Roe, the new majority may find Chief Justice John Roberts a hard sell for a frontal attack on Roe, as opposed to narrowing decisions along its edges. Remember, Roberts broke from the conservative wing to save Obamacare in 2012 rather than disrupt heath care coverage across the nation.

And even if Roe were overturned, the controversy would only shift to states where each could set its own policy.

Indeed, in 2013 Ruth Bader Ginsburg surprised an audience at the University of Chicago by saying that Roe v. Wade may have been a mistake in such a sweeping form. She said the politics of the decision were not good for the prochoice cause: “That was my concern, that the court had given opponents of access to abortion a target to aim at relentlessly . ... My criticism of Roe is that it seemed to have stopped the momentum that was on the side of change.”

If Roe is overturned, momentum will likely approach madness as an estimated 70 percent of the country moves to recreate the right in their states.

That is the car that Republicans fear to catch.