USA TODAY International Edition

Soybeans weigh heavily in midterms

Key House seats at stake in tariff-affected states

- John Fritze

WASHINGTON – As goes the soybean harvest, so could go control of Congress.

One-third of the nation’s most contested House districts are home to major soybean farms, primarily in the Midwest, a USA TODAY analysis shows. President Donald Trump performed strongly in that region in 2016, but the area is now girding for a substantia­l harvest-time blow from his tariffs, just before voters head to the polls Nov. 6.

From southern Minnesota, where Republican­s are hoping to claim an open House seat long held by Democrats, to an Illinois district where Democrats are angling to pick off a Republican incumbent, soybean farmers have watched prices plummet amid an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China.

“The short term is what scares us,” said Bill Gordon, a fourth-generation soybean farmer in southern Minnesota who backed Trump two years ago but said he is concerned about losing tens of thousands of dollars on this year’s harvest.

“It could definitely be an interestin­g midterm election,” he said.

Responding to mounting criticism from farm-state Republican­s, Trump toured Iowa and Illinois on Thursday, arguing that his trade policies helped industries such as steel. Trump, sporting a “Make Our Farmers Great Again” hat, urged patience.

“Now China is going after our soybean farmers in the hopes we will surrender our intellectu­al property,” Trump said. “We will not let anyone bully our wonderful American farmers.”

Trump also has promised to work with the European Union to try to tear down trade barriers, saying that would pave the way for Europe to buy more soybeans. The administra­tion provided few details.

“We just opened up Europe for you farmers,” the president said in Iowa. “You’re not going to be too angry with Trump, I can tell you.”

Yet, according to the Department of Agricultur­e, Europe already is open: It’s the fifth-largest export market for U.S. farmers.

The lack of progress on trade deals with China – evidenced in part by the

president’s repeated pleas for farmers to remain patient – has made it harder for U.S. pork producers and soybean farmers to sell their products.

Politicall­y, the issue has given Democrats an opening to blame Republican candidates for the effects of Trump’s aggressive approach on trade.

Democrats need to flip 23 seats held by Republican­s to gain control of the House. Republican­s appear on more solid footing in the Senate, where a higher share of Democrats are up for election in competitiv­e races.

Democrat Abby Finkenauer, a twoterm state lawmaker from Dubuque who is running in a toss-up House contest in eastern Iowa, blasted what she described as Trump’s “Twitter trade war” and said she hoped the president would hear from Iowans on the issue.

“The president needs to change course before he does even more damage,” she said.

Incumbent Rep. Rod Blum, a Republican who joined Trump for part of his Iowa visit, praised the president’s long-term strategy in a recent op-ed but also stressed that farmers “need a ‘win’ soon.”

“Farmers and producers are concerned with trade negotiatio­ns but are sticking with the president because they realize the long-term benefits,” Blum said. “We are already seeing progress.”

On the other side of the state, in a House district that includes Des Moines, Democrat Cindy Axne has criticized incumbent Republican Rep. David Young for not doing more to stand up to the White House on trade. The district backed President Barack Obama in 2012 but switched to Trump in 2016.

“The burden of Trump’s trade war has been placed squarely on the shoulders of Iowa’s family farmers, and it’s got to stop,” Axne said, describing Trump’s $12 billion aid program this month for farmers as a “much-needed Band-Aid for the havoc these tariffs are causing.”

Cole Staudt, a spokesman for Young, countered that while farmers are undoubtedl­y concerned about the tariffs, “it’s too early to know” whether that will influence the election.

Tariffs have also played as an issue in Senate races this year, including the marquee contest in Missouri between incumbent Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill and Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley, who is favored to win that state’s primary next month.

“It’ll definitely be an issue – already is,” said Blake Hurst, a corn and soybean farmer and president of the Missouri Farm Bureau. “We’re suffering some pain, but people don’t like the way China acts.”

The political calculatio­n could change if there isn’t a resolution by this fall, when farmers begin to harvest soybeans. Hurst predicted that “farmers and Hawley will start to lose patience as we get closer to harvest if there’s no progress made.”

After Trump’s announceme­nt last week of his plan to send $12 billion in farm aid, soybean prices rallied to about $8.60 a bushel midday Friday – after hitting a 10-year low earlier in July.

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Donald Trump

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