USA TODAY International Edition
Trump plans full-on fight into midterms
If Democrats gain, they can bog down his agenda
WASHINGTON – Claiming credit for this week’s election results, President Donald Trump served notice that he will be actively involved in this fall’s congressional races – and there’s good reason for that.
His presidency is likely at stake. If Democrats win a majority of U.S. House seats in November, Trump can say goodbye to his hopes for a new tax cut and a border wall; if they win the Senate, Trump will find it difficult to win confirmation for conservative nominees to any number of posts, including the Supreme Court.
A Democratic House or Senate, or both, would be able to wield a potent
weapon against the Trump White House: the power of investigation, maybe even impeachment.
“They will subpoena anybody who has been within 100 feet of Donald Trump,” said Republican strategist Scott Jennings, a former White House political adviser to President George W. Bush. “And it will grind this administration to a halt.”
Small wonder that Trump plans to be busy on the campaign trail.
“As long as I campaign and/or support Senate and House candidates (within reason), they will win!” Trump tweeted Wednesday. “I LOVE the people, & they certainly seem to like the job I’m doing.”
Trump and allies declared victory in an Ohio special election, though Republican state Sen. Troy Balderson held less than a 1-percentage-point-lead over Democratic county recorder Danny O’Connor. There may be a recount in a congressional district that Republicans have controlled for more than three decades and that Trump won by more than 11 points two years ago.
Undeterred, Trump tweeted that Balderson was down in early voting but rallied after a Trump appearance in Ohio over the weekend. “After my speech on Saturday night, there was a big turn for the better,” he tweeted.
Republican pollster Frank Luntz tweeted that the GOP can choose to celebrate the win in Ohio, but “a 1-point victory in that district is nothing to commend . ... The GOP have to do something really significant in September if they want to keep the House in November.”
In another tweet Wednesday, Trump said Republicans have won eight of nine House special elections since he won the presidency, “yet if you listen to the Fake News Media you would think we are being clobbered. Why can’t they play it straight, so unfair to the Republican Party and in particular, your favorite President!”
Those special elections have taken place in largely Republican districts.
Presidents have problems when members of the opposing party run Congress.
“Beyond investigations and newfound subpoena power, which seem inevitable, Democrats will set the agenda,” said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “In the Senate, Trump would have trouble getting judges, ambassadors and senior Cabinet officials confirmed.”
Republican consultant Liz Mair offered a stark example of what a Democratic Congress could do to Trump: “Making his tax returns publicly available.”
Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson declared that there is “a suburban revolt” against Republican rule.
“Last night, we saw voters who had backed (John) McCain, (Mitt) Romney and Trump by about 10 points but now are fleeing Trump’s Republican candidates because they don’t want more yes men in Congress,” he said.
In Michigan in April, Trump said, “We have to keep the House, because if we listen to (Democratic congresswoman) Maxine Waters, she’s going around saying, ‘We will impeach him.’ ”
The GOP has a 236-193 advantage in House seats, where there are six vacancies. The Democrats need a gain of 23 seats to take charge.
The Republicans have a much smaller advantage in the Senate – they have 51 members, while the Democratic caucus numbers 49 – but they may have a better chance of defending it.
That’s because only 35 Senate seats are up for election, and 26 are held by Democrats. Some of those Democrats face tough re-election battles in states that Trump carried in 2016 and where the president plans to spend a lot of time campaigning, including Florida, Missouri, North Dakota, Montana, Indiana and West Virginia.