USA TODAY International Edition
McIlroy, Finau are our experts’ picks to win PGA
LOUIS – Fire at will.
That will be the overriding plan of attack this week at Bellerive Country Club, as the host for the 100th playing of the PGA Championship has been left soft, vulnerable and ripe for scoring by the weather.
The par-70 course will play even longer than its listed 7,547 yards. The troubled greens are dart boards. Aggression will outplay conservatism, especially on the greens.
Steve Di Meglio’s 10 to watch
In picking a top 10, we looked for aggressive players who have a lot of firepower and make a lot of birdies. Our list includes five players who could win their first major. Keep in mind that seven of the last nine winners of the PGA Championship were first-time major winners, including the last three of Justin Thomas, Jimmy Walker and Jason Day. 10. Luke List: He’s in the top 10 in birdies made on the PGA Tour. Lost to Justin Thomas in a playoff in the Honda Classic. Has moved up to No. 47 in the world. A long shot but he has a big shot.
9. Gary Woodland: He has the firepower. Hasn’t had a top-10 in 14 starts since winning the Waste Management Phoenix Open. That streak ends this weekend. 8. Rickie Fowler: He’s been right there in majors but just hasn’t been able to finish one off. Can go low. He’s more than capable of winning his maiden major title.
7. Jon Rahm: Another player who is ready to win his first major. Shuns taking the conservative approach unless he needs to. Superb iron player, he makes birdies in bunches.
6. Tiger Woods: Toss out that clunker he produced last weekend at Firestone, where he looked listless and out of sorts. He plays what the course provides, so he will attack. Tied for sixth in the British Open.
5. Jason Day: Was in contention at Firestone before a final-round 73 dropped him into a tie for 10th. Is tied
for sixth in birdie average on the PGA Tour. Has two wins this year. Won the PGA in 2015. 4. Tony Finau: Three top-10s in majors this year. Growing confidence. Can overpower any course. Solid chance to make it eight first-time major winners in the last 10 PGAs.
3. Justin Thomas: Is there a more ideal way to get ready to defend your title at the PGA than to win the previous week against a monster field on a tough track? No. Thomas won by four and now has eight titles since the start of the 2016-17 wraparound season.
2. Dustin Johnson: Let’s see, he’s No. 1 in the world and leads the PGA Tour in scoring average, birdie average and eagles per hole. A three-time winner this year. Envied length and lethal with his wedge game. And the winner is: Rory McIlroy
Bellerive seems like it was built for him, with most of the holes featuring a right-to-left power game. Now add Mother Nature’s touch that has produced soft conditions and that’s a perfect combo for the four-time major champion. Remember, all four of his major titles came on soft courses. And he’s contended in his last two starts — a tie for second in the British Open and a tie for sixth in the Bridgestone Invitational. He wins his third Wanamaker Trophy.
Geoff Shackelford’s 10 to watch
10. Tiger Woods: Play at Carnoustie, not even a course that “fits his eye,” suggests Woods is inching back into his old form. He didn’t play Bellerive in the 2008 BMW due to injury, but it’s clear he has the power to handle what is a much longer course than in past tournaments here. 9. Justin Thomas: The defending champion welcomes the chance to keep the Wanamaker Trophy, and everything about his game should fit Bellerive assuming the setup allows for some of his trademark aggressiveness. No chance for a letdown after winning last weekend’s Bridgestone.
8. Rickie Fowler: Fowler has played
well in plenty of majors, has all the tools to handle whatever the PGA puts forward and seems to be in an incredibly positive place in his life.
7. Phil Mickelson: He is the one player on this list who has played Bellerive, though that was 600 yards ago — not that distance is a concern for a long-enough driver and even better long-iron player. He finished T-17 here in the 2008 BMW Championship. And 48-year-olds are not supposed to putt this well. 6. Jordan Spieth: He might have found something in Scotland. No, the PGA is not his best major if it’s a bomband-gouge contest light on the kind of chess-match golf he demonstrated at Carnoustie and in which he excels. But when Spieth plays with swagger, no course is too much to overcome.
5. Brooks Koepka: Warm weather, long irons and some big drives could reinvigorate a game that seems to respond well to the PGA’s August playing. Just needs to put disappointing British Open behind him. 4. Rory McIlroy: If he takes the boost he should from the British Open, where he tied for second, McIlroy might finally become the player again who won four majors.
3. Justin Rose: Great driver has the power to deal with Bellerive and the accuracy should it be narrow and stifling. A player who nearly climbed into the winner’s circle after a rough start at Carnoustie, Rose builds his year around the majors. His back spasms and withdrawal at Firestone should be considered but not fretted about.
2. Dustin Johnson: If Bellerive is a power-game layout, he’ll be in heaven. DJ also can shift to long irons off tees as he did at Shinnecock. His adaptability, other than to Carnoustie’s 18th hole, is underrated. And the winner is: Tony Finau
Mega-talented player hasn’t been outside the top 10 in this year’s majors and has the ballstriking game to handle Bellerive. With the iffy greens as an equalizer, his so-so putting should not cost him strokes against the field. He spoke positively Monday about the greens, too. Finau also wears Nike, clothier of the year’s first three major winners. If you are looking for those types of angles.