USA TODAY International Edition
Gun control advertising war does about-face
More spots now in favor of tighter restrictions
WASHINGTON – Candidates across the country and allied outside groups are seizing on the gun debate in advertising this election cycle, but with a twist: More spots now promote gun control than oppose it.
That messaging represents a reversal from the last midterm cycle in 2014 and even 2016, when the combined total of pro-gun-rights spots in governors, House and Senate races eclipsed those seeking restrictions on guns, according to a USA TODAY analysis of data from Kantar Media.
The shift follows a rash of mass shootings, including the killing of 17 students and staff members at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, six months ago Tuesday.
Democrats are driving the surge in advertising favoring gun control as polling shows the public generally supports stricter laws covering the sale of firearms and overwhelmingly backs expanded background checks.
It could be a gamble, given that limiting access to guns has long been considered the third rail of politics. For decades, prominent Democrats, especially in battleground states, have sought to reassure voters that they support protections under the Second Amendment for the right to bear arms.
In 2018, however, candidates and outside groups – particularly in House and gubernatorial races – are flooding the airwaves with pointed and sometimes dramatic messages.
“I’m running for governor because I’m a parent who will not stop at anything until we make our gun laws stronger and our children safe,” says Philip Levine, a candidate in Florida’s Democratic gubernatorial primary,
which has drawn the largest number of spots favoring gun control.
From Jan. 1 through Aug. 6, the total number of spots in gubernatorial, House and Senate races favoring gun control outpaced those opposed to it, representing about 59 percent of the total spots that took an explicit position in the gun debate. That’s up from 31 percent in 2016 and 11 percent in 2014.
Something ‘flipped’
Overall in those races, there were about 82,000 pro-gun-control spots, most of them by Democrats, and about 57,500 anti-gun-control spots, most of them by Republicans.
The pro-gun-control spots this year had 81 sponsors, compared with 72 for anti-gun-control spots – also a reversal from the two previous cycles.
Spots considered “pro-gun-control” may call for increased restrictions on guns or opposition to the National Rifle Association, while “anti-guncontrol” ads may express support for the Second Amendment, the NRA or the freedom to bear arms, according to Kantar, which tracked the spot count or the number of times ads have aired.
GOP Georgia gubernatorial candidate Brian Kemp, who has run the most anti-gun-control spots, made waves in his primary with an ad showing him pointing a shotgun at a teenager named “Jake” who wanted to date his daughter. He announced his approval when he discovered Jake met Kemp’s qualifications: “Respect” and “a healthy appreciation for the Second Amendment, sir.”
Democrats have long tried to counter such messaging and attacks from the NRA by showing an affinity for hunters and expressing support for Second Amendment rights. In 2004, John Kerry, appearing in camouflage, took his presidential campaign to a duck blind. And Barack Obama, in an appeal to the heartland in 2008, supported a Supreme Court decision overturning a ban on guns in Washington, D.C. That came after he angered Midwestern voters by saying at a fundraiser that they get bitter and “cling to guns or religion.”
Something “flipped” when former Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., lost her seat in 2016 after her vote against an expansion of background checks, said Lanae Erickson Hatalsky of the center-left think tank Third Way. That same cycle, Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., won after touting his work on the background-check bill as a strategy to mobilize suburban women.
“All of a sudden they were like, ‘Oh, being against some of these commonsense reforms can actually hurt me, and being for them can be good,’ ” Erickson Hatalsky said.
In House races – a good gauge for comparison, since they happen in every district, every two years – pro-gun-control spots this year represented about 67 percent of those with explicit messages on guns, compared with 26 percent in 2016 and 6 percent in 2014. All but one of those ads in favor of gun control this year were funded by Democrats.
“We have never seen this many gunsafety ads being run, and especially not this early on in the cycle. Voters are demanding leadership.”
Isabelle James Political director for Giffords, a gun-control group co-founded by former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords
“We have never seen this many gunsafety ads being run, and especially not this early on in the cycle,” said Isabelle James, political director for a gun-control group co-founded by former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords. “Voters are demanding leadership on the issue.”
Only in the Senate races did pro-gunrights spots – all aired by Republicans – outpace pro-gun-control spots. Democrats instead aired more miscellaneous gun-related messages in Senate races than those promoting gun control.
That approach makes “perfect sense” for Democrats when looking at where the competitive Senate races are this year, said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist and former Republican National Committee spokesman
But while the Senate’s geographical battleground is more rural and Midwestern, most key House races are in suburban districts former Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won in 2016, Erickson Hatalsky said.
Contributing: Fredreka Schouten and Donovan Slack