Conference calls on best teams, sleepers

There are few certainties in college football. Alabama will be good. Likewise with Clemson. Wisconsin will run the football. Stanford running back Bryce Love will break a long run. Everything else is a guessing game.

But we’ve seen enough, read enough and gathered enough information to make a few educated guesses about how the 2018 season will play out.

For each of the 10 Football Bowl Subdivision leagues and the independents, here are the best teams, sleeper teams and teams least likely to succeed as the long offseason finally draws to a close.

American Athletic Conference

Best team: Central Florida Sleeper team: Temple

Least likely to succeed: Connecticut Central Florida remains the class of the AAC behind a new coaching staff led by former Missouri assistant Josh Heupel. Temple coach Geoff Collins believes the Owls are ready to make a run at a division title. Connecticut is taking steps under Randy Edsall, but there’s another year of struggles ahead.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Best team: Clemson Sleeper team: Boston College Least likely to succeed: North Carolina

Clemson’s right there with Alabama as the best team in the country. While Boston College isn’t headed for an ACC title or New Year’s Six bowl, a wealth of individual standouts on offense and defense have the Eagles in contention for a nine-win season. North Carolina feels like the safest bet to end this season in the cellar, though Virginia might give the Tar Heels a run for their money in the Coastal Division.

Big 12

Best team: Oklahoma Sleeper team: Kansas State

Least likely to succeed: Kansas Oklahoma’s the pick until proved otherwise, though TCU and West Virginia are right on the Sooners’ heels. Kansas State is perennially overlooked, so a potential conference title would be treated as another one of Bill Snyder’s great achievements, even if the Wildcats are more than capable of cracking the Amway Coaches Poll at some point in 2018. Kansas is … well, Kansas has some work to do.

Big Ten

Best team: Wisconsin Sleeper team: Nebraska

Least likely to succeed: Illinois Wisconsin and its outstanding offensive line, underrated quarterback and Heisman Trophy-contending running back gets the nod over Ohio State. Nebraska has hit the ground running under first-year head coach Scott Frost and will surprise teams in conference play. Illinois is the weak link in a league brimming with national names.

Conference USA

Best team: Florida Atlantic Sleeper team: Marshall

Least likely to succeed: Charlotte Lane Kiffin and FAU are the class of the league and a threat to crack 10 wins for the second year in a row. But don’t sleep on Marshall, which houses a defense more than good enough to lift the Thundering Herd to a division title. Charlotte has been a non-factor since joining the conference; that doesn’t seem likely to change in 2018.

Independents

Best team: Notre Dame Surprise team: Army

Least likely to succeed: Liberty Notre Dame is always a trendy pick for the national title. This year is no different, though the Irish must get improved play from quarterback Brandon Wimbush before making plans for a January bowl. After a 10-win 2017 season, Army’s capacity to surprise is diminishing by the year. The Black Knights’ smooth schedule ensures another year around eight wins. Liberty is better than your average FBS newcomer but won’t make any noise in 2018.

Mid-American Conference

Best team: Toledo Sleeper team: Buffalo

Least likely to succeed: Kent State Toledo’s firepower at the skill positions gives the Rockets a slight edge over Ohio and Northern Illinois, though the Bobcats and Huskies are built to win a MAC championship. Buffalo’s building project under Lance Leipold led to bowl eligibility in 2017 and the possibility of a top-two finish in this year’s East Division. Kent State will need to be patient as the program moves forward under new coach Sean Lewis.

Mountain West

Best team: Boise State Sleeper team: Utah State

Least likely to succeed: San Jose State

The Broncos look like the best team in the Group of Five and the favorite for the access-bowl bid to a New Year’s Six game. Don’t overlook Utah State, which could ride its overall experience to eight or nine wins should quarterback play improve.

San Jose State played better down the stretch last season, a positive sign, but there’s another year of work ahead before Brent Brennan and the Spartans can be put into the mix for bowl game contention.

Pac-12

Best team: Washington Sleeper team: Oregon Least likely to succeed: Oregon State

We’ll know more about Washington after its opener with Auburn, but the Huskies seem built to race toward a Pac-12 title and a spot in the national semifinals. While classifying Oregon as a sleeper ignores the modest preseason expectations: a healthy Justin Herbert could vault the team into the New Year’s Six conversation. Oregon State is the weakest team in the Pac-12 and weakest in the Power Five this side of Kansas.

Southeastern Conference

Best team: Alabama

Sleeper team: Texas A&M

Least likely to succeed: Arkansas Alabama remains the team to beat, though Georgia and Auburn aren’t far behind. While predicting how the season will play behind a first-year coach is always dicey, the combination of Texas A&M’s talent level and Jimbo Fisher makes the Aggies very intriguing. Arkansas made a very good hire in former SMU coach Chad Morris, but the change in scheme, lack of depth and difficult schedule has the Razorbacks headed for a rebuilding year.

Sun Belt

Best team: Arkansas State Sleeper team: Georgia State

Least likely to succeed: Texas State Arkansas State’s biggest edge comes at quarterback, where Justice Hansen is the Sun Belt’s best by a significant margin. Another year in Shawn Elliott’s system and the program’s solid recruiting has Georgia State in line to make another run at seven wins and a bowl berth. Texas State might be better, but it’d be hard for the Bobcats to get much worse.