USA TODAY International Edition
Brady, Patriots needing WRs to step up
A little early paranoia is nothing new to the Patriots. It was just last year that New England started 2-2 and many ruminated whether the AFC’s longtime standard bearer was finally bound to fall from its perch atop the conference. The questions were even louder for Bill Belichick & Co. in 2014 after a Monday night dismantling by the Chiefs left the Patriots with the same record and a smattering of concerns. In both cases the season ended with a trip to the Super Bowl. Yet this year’s sluggish 1-2 start has something of a different feel after the franchise’s first consecutive double-digit losses since 2002. A third consecutive defeat Sunday might be legitimate cause for alarm, as it would open a three-game lead in the division for the unbeaten Dolphins. The primary source for the Patriots’ offensive struggles has been the depleted receiving corps’ inability to provide a secondary threat next to Rob Gronkowski. Tom Brady has averaged just 5.5 yards per pass attempt to his wide receivers, according to ESPN, with a 57 percent completion rate on throws targeting them. While Julian Edelman’s return next week from a four-game suspension should boost the unit, New England needs to find a way to establish a threat on the outside against Miami. Josh Gordon could provide a much-needed deep threat if he makes his Patriots debut, but he’s listed as questionable with a hamstring injury and would be hard-pressed to become a consistent contributor in a complex offense. The Dolphins defense also has ample reason for confidence against the Patriots after it held the attack to its secondlowest point total of the season in a 27-20 win in December. Cornerback Xavien Howard, who had two interceptions in the last meeting and is one of the league’s burgeoning shutdown defenders, could give Brady even stronger pause in looking to get things going with his receivers. But the Dolphins still must formulate a game plan for containing Gronkowski, their longtime tormentor who missed the last matchup while serving a one-game suspension. Safety Reshad Jones noted the need to deny the tight end a free release. Handling the four-time all-pro should be a group effort. Establishing pressure with just four rushers, long seen as the common thread for keeping Brady under wraps, will be paramount for the Dolphins. While Robert Quinn and Cameron Wake can be disruptive off the edge, Miami has little depth after William Hayes suffered a torn ACL and Andre Branch was ruled out for the week. Second-year defensive end Charles Harris will be counted on to provide pressure in a rotational role. Third downs could also be a proving ground for the Dolphins. Miami didn’t allow New England to convert any of its 11 attempts in last season’s win but has come up short on 43.2 percent of thirddown scenarios this season. Running backs James White and Sony Michel can create mismatches in the passing game against the Dolphins linebackers, though rookie Jerome Baker has fared well in coverage. Here are other matchups that could define Week 4 in the NFL.
❚ Steelers WRs Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Ravens CBs Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Carr
Baltimore has allowed the secondfewest passing yards of any team this season, but the Ravens need no reminder of what their AFC North rival’s passing attack is capable of. With Smith sidelined by a torn Achilles last December, Brown broke out for 11 catches and 213 yards in a 39-38 win that sealed the division for Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger acknowledged he hasn’t been forcing the ball to Brown at the same level as in past seasons, though the four-time all-pro still has the secondmost targets (42) of any player through three games. Don’t mistake the shift in balance, however, for a drop in efficiency. Roethlisberger has surpassed 300 yards in every contest this season thanks in part to the performance of Smith-Schuster, who leads the team with 27 catches and 356 receiving yards. The Ravens are likely to give Humphrey the bulk of the work against Brown after he took over for Carr and allowed just two catches for 7 yards against the Steelers star, according to Pro Football Focus. But Roethlisberger also might be content to look to Smith-Schuster and again pick on Carr, who allowed eight catches for 141 yards on 13 catches in last December’s meeting. Safeties Eric Weddle and Tony Jefferson could play critical roles in providing additional help.
❚ Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott vs. Lions’ front seven
Holding Tom Brady and the Patriots to 10 points last week might have been an important milestone for Matt Patricia, but Detroit’s defense still ranks last against the run with 149.3 rushing yards allowed per game and 5.4 yards per carry. If Dallas can avoid falling behind early, the coaching staff might give Elliott the workload of 20-plus carries he’s yet to see this season. While offensive coordinator Scott Linehan expressed a desire this week for Dak Prescott to “start slinging it around,” this might be a prime opportunity for the Cowboys to cater to their strengths. Despite working with the 31st-ranked air attack, Elliott is averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Detroit’s numbers against the run (as well as its top-ranked pass defense) are likely skewed by the substantial deficits it faced in the first two games. But with defensive end Ezekiel Ansah again ruled out with a shoulder injury, the Lions don’t have an impact player in their front seven.
❚ Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes vs. Broncos secondary
When Mahomes made his NFL debut against Denver in Week 17 last year, the first-round pick was merely stepping in for Alex Smith in a game that had no bearing on Kansas City’s playoff outlook. Fast-forward to September, and the second-year passer has set multiple records, racking up 13 touchdowns with no interceptions in leading the Chiefs to a 3-0 mark. Much has also changed for the Broncos, with the holdovers of the “No Fly Zone” secondary allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.5 percent of their passes for 8.5 yards per attempt. Pro Bowl cornerback Chris Harris Jr. expressed his displeasure with the defense’s approach when he said last Sunday that the defensive backs would remain “sitting ducks” unless schematic changes are made. Denver’s defense has been strained by quick-hit approaches that have mitigated the impact of Von Miller and the pass rush. With nine different players already boasting at least one touchdown reception, the Chiefs have the depth and versatility to keep the burden on the Broncos secondary. Rookie cornerback Isaac Yiadom, repeatedly targeted by the Ravens last week, could be singled out if Tramaine Brock misses the game because of a thigh injury.