USA TODAY International Edition
Immigration debate dominates House races
Even far from the border, issue is at the forefront
In a recent congressional debate in Idaho, the first 11 questions for a pair of congressional candidates were about immigration. At another in Arkansas, the fate of undocumented immigrant kids dominated the discussion even though few of them reside in the state. And in Minnesota, a Democrat challenging an incumbent GOP House lawmaker went back and forth on the merits of building a wall on the U.S. southern border more than 1,600 miles away.
With the midterm elections next, the topic of immigration is churning in House congressional races in places where the unemployment rate is low, the economy is robust and undocumented immigrants are few. Historically, these indicators, when pointing in the opposite direction, trigger an antiimmigrant backlash.
President Donald Trump has been the driving force behind that focus on immigration, with his tweets and comments about the migrant caravan marching north and his plan to deploy more troops to the U.S.-Mexico border, and his attempts to follow through on his 2016 pledge to build a border wall. But there's also a level of “cultural anxiety” at play, say political experts, as some Americans living far from the border continue to perceive a threat from immigrants.
Americans list health care, the economy and gun policy as the three most important issues they'll consider when casting their vote, with immigration coming in fourth, according to a poll conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation. But self-identified Republicans cited immigration as their top concern.
Daron Shaw, who studies campaigns and public opinion at the University of Texas at Austin, says those numbers can be explained by two factors.
The first is a connection ingrained in the minds of many Americans that immigrants are harmful to the economy and drive down the wages of nativeborn workers, a connection that is refuted by multiple studies. So even if a native-born American is gainfully employed, Shaw says, they can still blame immigrants for their rising property taxes or a neighbor who's underemployed.
The second reason Shaw cited is that border control becomes a measure by which voters judge a government's ability to operate. Shaw said the perception of an out-of-control border becomes a key point of contrast between candidates, with many Republicans pushing for a border wall while accusing Democrats of sabotaging their efforts to preserve “open borders.”
That analysis helps explain why Republican Rep. Mike Simpson and his Democratic challenger Aaron Swisher ended up fielding 11 consecutive questions about immigration to start their debate.
“There is today, I heard, 1,000 people from Honduras making their way up here that are going to try to cross illegally,” Simpson said during the Oct. 14 debate. “That's going to cause a problem.”
The caravan en route to the U.S.Mexico border has since swelled in size to between 3,500 to 7,000, but like previous caravans, the majority are not expected to present themselves at ports of entry and request asylum. Nearly 1,700 members of the current caravan have applied for asylum in Mexico, according to Mexican government authorities.
A similar debate played out last week in Minnesota's second congressional district, when Republican Rep. Jason Lewis and his Democratic challenger Angie Craig got into a prolonged debate over the logistical challenges of the nation's southern border.
“1,000 people from Honduras are going to try to cross illegally.” Rep. Mike Simpson, R-Idaho