Foreign leaders are on edge about midterm elections

WASHINGTON – When Americans go to the polls next week, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may be glued to the results – along with China’s Xi Jinping, Iran’s Hassan Rouhani and an array of other foreign leaders around the world.

America’s allies and enemies alike will be trying to analyze the 2018 midterms for hints of President Donald Trump’s political future and the staying power of his foreign policies – whether it’s sanctions against Iran, nuclear talks with North Korea or a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.

It’s not unusual for American elections to garner attention abroad. But this election stands out as particularly consequential across the globe, experts say, largely because Trump has upended U.S. foreign policy.

Here’s a look at how the U.S. midterms look from abroad:

North Korea

Kim Jong Un has a lot riding on the Nov. 6 election, says Sue Mi Terry, an expert on North Korea with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

The North Korean dictator wants a peace treaty declaring an end to the Korean War. The fighting ceased in 1953 with an armistice but never officially ended. Kim’s push for an official treaty has become a flashpoint in the U.S.-North Korea negotiations aimed at persuading the Kim regime to relinquish his nuclear arsenal.

“Right now, Kim Jong Un has a strategy … and all of it is working out pretty well for him,” Terry said, because Trump has been an amenable partner.

Trump has agreed to hold a second summit with Kim, a meeting that could take place in the coming months. But lawmakers in Congress – and Democrats in particular – have been deeply skeptical of the talks, with some openly suggesting that Kim is duping Trump with empty promises. Congress would have to ratify any treaty officially ending the Korean War.

“They are really worried that the president, coming out on the other side of this election, may not be interested in this issue anymore, may be hog-tied or hand-tied by his Congress, or may even be … on the docket for impeachment,” said Victor Cha, who was director of Asian affairs at the National Security Council during the Obama administration.

China

Trump has accused China of meddling in the midterm elections as a way to undermine his trade policy – notably the steep tariffs the administration has placed on Chinese goods. As evidence, the president and other White House officials have cited a four-page advertising supplement that a Chinese-government media company placed in Iowa’s largest newspaper, the Des Moines Register.

Experts say there’s scant evidence that Xi’s government is engaged in significant election interference and note that China and other foreign governments often run ads in American media outlets to promote positive perceptions.

Still, there’s no doubt Chinese leaders are keenly interested in how the midterm elections turn out.

The Chinese are less concerned with the combative turn in U.S. rhetoric than with the Trump administration’s unpredictability, said Allen Carlson, director of the China and Asia Pacific Studies program at Cornell University.

“I imagine they would very much like a clearer American approach to China,” he said. That’s not the same thing as being opposed to Trump or in favor of the Democrats, he added.

Iran

The Trump administration’s No. 1 foreign policy goal is to isolate Iran. So it’s no wonder that Iranian leaders are trying to figure out if they can wait Trump out – or if they need to come up with Plan B.

The midterm elections will go a long way toward answering that question, said Trita Parsi, founder of the National Iranian American Council, an organization that seeks to promote better U.S.-Iran relations.

The central question for Iran is the fate of the 2015 nuclear agreement. Trump withdrew from that multilateral deal and has reimposed economic sanctions that could hobble Iran’s economy.

For now, Iran has said it will adhere to the agreement, which bars Iran from developing nuclear weapons, in the hopes that the U.S. might rejoin the deal under a new administration.

“If you have a very strong showing by the Democrats, and you have a Democratic House and possibly even a Senate, it will provide a check on Trump’s strategy,” Parsi said. “It will embolden Iran to hope that they can just wait Trump out and hope that he is just a one-term president.”

European Union, NATO

Europe feels bullied by the president.

Trump has been especially scornful of the trans-Atlantic trade relationship, saying “nobody treats us worse than the European Union.” He has hit the 28-nation political bloc with tariffs on steel and aluminum, and European leaders in Brussels have retaliated with tariffs on iconic American goods such as Harley-Davidson motorcycles.

The president’s attitude toward the NATO military alliance has been equally tumultuous. Trump has said it’s “obsolete” and a relic of the Cold War to pressure other members to make good on their pledges to make larger financial contributions to the coalition.

“Europeans would like to see Trump’s power diminished,” said Michael Wohlgemuth, director of Open Europe, a Berlin-based foreign affairs think tank.