USA TODAY International Edition
Why the midterms were both good and bad for Trump
WASHINGTON – The midterm elections gave both Democrats and Republicans reasons to hope they have momentum going after the big prize: the 2020 presidential contest.
Democrats point to their energized base – especially among female voters – who helped them recapture the House.
Republicans still hear the cheers of the thousands of voters who turned out for the rallies President Donald Trump held in states where Democratic senators were defeated.
Although Trump declared victory Wednesday, “this is one that probably cuts in either direction,” said Ari Fleischer, former spokesman for President George W. Bush.
Here’s are reasons why the midterm election results were good for Trump’s re-election bid and reasons why they weren’t.
Trump's base remains strong
The results showed Trump has the loyalty of Republicans, Rothenberg said. “He knows how to get them excited, interested and turn them out,” he said. Trump’s final campaign blitz of large rallies, helped fell at least three Democratic sena-
tors.
Republican National Committee spokeswoman Cassie Smedile said that not only does the midterm prove voters’ support for Trump wasn’t a fluke in 2016, but the party has integrated many supporters into its donor and volunteer base – and they’re ready to work on 2020. “They’re a fully ingrained part of our team and infrastructure,” Smedile said.
Ohio and (maybe) Florida will help
Although Democrats recaptured multiple gubernatorial seats Tuesday, they lost in Ohio, and their candidate initially conceded in a Florida contest that will be decided after a recount. That matters for 2020 because of the outsized role those large – and swing – states play in a presidential contest.
Having the governor in the state be from the same party is a “really, really big help” for a presidential candidate, because governors have powerful statewide organizations, said Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Dems not united by a candidate
Dynamic Democrats such as Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke in Texas and gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams in Georgia energized and helped grow the Democratic base.
“The Democratic Party is back,” Democratic National Committee chair Tom Perez said at a breakfast roundtable Wednesday sponsored by The Christian Science Monitor.
Because those candidates lost – although Democrats hope for a runoff in Georgia – the party will continue to debate what type of candidate can win nationally and whether to nominate a moderate or liberal.
Democrats’ new power to investigate Trump and his administration through the House committees they will control means “it’s much more likely that scandals are going to appear” that could resonate with voters in a way that past controversies haven’t, said Allan Lichtman, a political historian who has correctly predicted the outcomes of all presidential elections since 1984.
Return of the blue wall
Trump got over the top in 2016 with narrow wins in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, states that were supposed to be Hillary Clinton’s “blue wall.” Tuesday, Democrats won the Senate and gubernatorial contests in all three states.
“His miracle states nobody thought he could win are looking Democratic again,” said Mike Murphy, a GOP consultant and Trump critic.
Demographics are destiny
Democrats’ win in the Nevada Senate race and an increasingly likely victory in the undecided Senate contest in Arizona show the West is turning purple, Lichtman said. The Georgia governor’s race and Texas Senate contest indicate those states could become competitive sooner than expected, though maybe not in 2020.