USA TODAY International Edition
College Football Playoff committee must evolve, value offense in ’18
After all these weeks of order, chaos came in the form of a complete (and completely unexpected) beatdown. Ohio State 62, Michigan 39 was as impressive as it was stunning. It shook up the College Football Playoff race. But it was so much more than that. It was an enigmatic but very talented bunch of Buckeyes, for one game when it was most important, finally coming to vigorous life. It was Jim Harbaugh’s and Michigan’s entire season crashing and burning in spectacular fashion with yet another loss to the Buckeyes. It was tremendous entertainment.
But in the biggest picture, it was also a very vivid illustration of what a dynamic offense can do to a very good defense. Which is why, when evaluating incomplete teams, the College Football Playoff selection committee’s current and very obvious preference for defense is clearly the wrong lean.
It’s much better — best! — to have both an offense and a defense. See: Alabama and Clemson. But if (like most teams), you’ve got one or the other?
This is 2018: You’d better be able to put up a bunch of points.
For all of those weeks, shutting down opponents and piling up wins, Michigan was considered to be something approaching a complete team (the selection committee’s buzz phrase). Ohio State kept giving up big plays and barely winning with its potent offense (except, of course, for that one time when Purdue hung a 29-point loss on ’em).
And then on Saturday, the Buckeyes flat out exploded. Dwayne Haskins threw darts to very fast receivers who outran Michigan’s defensive backs. A unit that had allowed 234.8 yards and 13.5 points (No. 1 and No. 4 nationally) had given up 278 and 24 by halftime.
The Wolverines offense, which had seemingly improved through the season but remained mostly unimaginatively conventional, had no chance.
Just one game? A snowball effect? Yup. But that’s the point.
This isn’t to say the Buckeyes are safely into the four-team bracket. Or Oklahoma, either, despite Kyler Murray and a season’s worth of unprecedented offense. Both teams have crazy, glaring defensive flaws. Ohio State has a 29point shellacking by Purdue and all of those chunk plays in all of those other games, and also an offense that, while it has a very high ceiling, has been erratic. Oklahoma’s 59-56 victory at West Virginia was a classic Big 12 shootout between two high-octane offenses, but its defense is so porous, any opponent can become an instant juggernaut.
That’s why we should not fast-forward Ohio State past Northwestern in the Big Ten championship game or Oklahoma past Texas in the Big 12’s.
But those offenses can detonate at any time, providing the Buckeyes and Sooners a chance to beat anybody.
In the bigger picture, it’s long past time the selection committee recognizes that in a matchup of incomplete teams, explosive offense often beats down dominant defense.
Its affinity for a two-loss LSU was one of the most fascinating things about the Playoff rankings the last few weeks. Until Saturday, when it was caught up in seven overtimes against Texas A&M — in which scoring was exponentially magnified and numbers were dramatically skewed — the Tigers featured a very good defense but not much offense. Which is why they had zero chance against Alabama. That was how many points they scored at home against the Tide (which won by 29).
Alabama, by the way, is the ultimate example of the new reality.
Look what Nick Saban did at halftime in last year’s national championship game, inserting Tua Tagovailoa at halftime. Observe what the Crimson Tide has morphed into this season. While its defense is good but not great, ’Bama has produced an all-out offensive explosion that has created a seemingly invulnerable machine. See what the Tide did Saturday, just running away from rival Auburn.
Saban understood what was possible and that it was necessary.
“Everybody wishes their offense could just do the same thing,” Alabama defensive tackle Quinnen Williams told USA TODAY last month.
To win at the highest level, everyone needs their offense to at least approximate the same thing.
It’s easy to see how and why the selection committee is predisposed toward defense. Its current makeup includes five ex-coaches. They rightfully command a lot of respect from the other eight committee members. But the retired coaches’ average age is 71.6 years old, and Frank Beamer, who retired after the 2015 season, is the only one who coached in this decade.
Coincidentally, that’s when offense transformed college football.
At some point, those slots will be occupied by guys who coached in this era. The predisposition toward defense will probably change.
It’d be nice, though, if the selection committee acknowledged right now, in real time, the reality of college football in the postmodern era: You’d better have an offense — because what happened Saturday can happen to your very good defense.
Defense remains hugely important. Having both is absolutely the best possible situation. See Alabama and Clemson. It’s best to be complete.
But if it’s one or the other? “Defense wins championships” is a nice talking point, but putting up points is a much better plan.