USA TODAY International Edition
Harris surges, Sanders suffers
The first Democratic debate reshaped the presidential field in Iowa as support surged for California Sen. Kamala Harris, undercutting the standing of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and raising questions about the solidity of former Vice President Joe Biden’s frontrunner status.
In a new Suffolk University/USA TODAY Poll, Biden continues to lead the field, backed by 24% of those who say they are likely to attend the Democratic caucuses in Iowa that will open the presidential contests next year. Harris jumped to second place, at 16%, leapfrogging over Sanders, whose support sagged to single digits. At 9%, he finished fourth, behind Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 13%.
The new standings are hardly set in stone. Twenty-one percent are undecided. Six of 10 who have decided say they might change their mind before the caucuses. One in four say their minds are firmly made up. The second set of debates, scheduled for the end of the month in Detroit, could upend the horse race again.
The survey has some sobering findings for Biden. His level of support didn’t change from the Des Moines Register/Mediacom/CNN Iowa Poll taken last month, but among those who watched him debate, more than four in 10 say he did worse than they expected. Among all of those surveyed, he is the second choice of 11%.
Harris saw her support more than double compared with the poll in June, to 16% from 7%. She is the second choice of 17% – a telling measure of the potential breadth of a candidate’s support. When first and second choices are combined, Biden only narrowly edges Harris, 35% to 33%.
“To win in Iowa, you have to be able to woo the supporters of other candidates who drop out or that don’t reach the 15% threshold at the caucus,” says David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University’s Political Research Center. “The poll tells us that candidates like Harris, Warren and (Pete) Buttigieg poll better than Biden and Sanders in this regard, and that sets the stage for a new face exceeding expectations in Iowa.”
The opening back-to-back debates, featuring 10 contenders each night, were held last Wednesday and Thursday in Miami.
For Sanders, who lost the 2016 Iowa caucuses to Hillary Clinton by less than a point, the new poll has warning flags. His support is 7 points lower than in the Iowa Poll taken in June, when he finished second to Biden. When first and second choices are combined, Sanders finishes fifth – trailing Biden, Harris and Warren by double digits and Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, by single digits.