USA TODAY International Edition
Cole’s historic deal sends tremors
SAN DIEGO – Gerrit Cole’s Newport Beach home is some 100 miles from the Manchester Grand Hyatt, site of this week’s baseball winter meetings. Yet Cole didn’t have to hop on I- 5 South and walk through its doors to deliver the biggest jolt to the game’s annual transaction bazaar in at least five years.
Cole’s nine- year, $ 324 million agreement with the Yankees – a record for a pitcher by several metrics, and nearly a record for a free agent – casts the Bronx Bombers as clear World Series favorites.
And the reverberations leave a trail of disappointment for several teams and a small fortune for several more players to claim.
Cole’s deal was a perfect storm of several big- market clubs thirsting to get over the top – the Yankees and the Dodgers to end too- long- for- them title droughts, the Angels to pair an ace with generational star Mike Trout. Throw in the fact the Dodgers and Yankees both ducked under the minimum luxury tax threshold in recent seasons, and there were few impediments to a Cole megadeal.
Now what?
If Cole’s price tag was a shocker, his destination was not. Yet while the Dodgers, Angels and two reported “mystery teams” certainly could have envisioned Cole landing in pinstripes, the finality of it will force them to reevaluate – and quickly.
Here’s how the Cole verdict will impact several parties of interest as the winter meetings headed toward a final full day of activity:
Dodgers: Another way to slay beast
Under baseball operations president Andrew Friedman, no personnel loss is too big for the Dodgers. It’s how they’ve won seven consecutive National League West titles and two straight NL pennants in 2017 and 2018.
Fluid and creative and beholden to no single asset, Friedman has avoided major free agent commitments beyond retaining his own – Clayton Kershaw ($ 93 million), Kenley Jansen ($ 80 million) and Justin Turner ($ 64 million). His biggest import was a $ 60 million deal for outfielder A. J. Pollock, a January deal that followed the dumping of Yasiel Puig yet before making a late and short- term play for Bryce Harper.
They won 106 games in 2019 and almost certainly will win an eighth straight NL West crown in 2020. Yet the Cole miss will sting.
The Dodgers’ five- game knockout at the hands of the Nationals was their most devastating playoff elimination yet. It also exposed the decided lack of swing- and- miss in their starting rotation beyond ace Walker Buehler. Adding Cole’s 326 strikeouts wouldn’t have ensured their first World Series crown since 1988, but it would have come close.
So now the focus shifts to third baseman Anthony Rendon, who should “only” cost them $ 250 million, yet add a premier bat and elite defensive glove. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday that Turner “initiated the tone” of selflessness by volunteering to move to second base for a Rendon signing.
And if they finish second or worse on Rendon? Turner back to third. Max Muncy and rookie Gavin Lux at second. Maybe they add Madison Bumgarner to the rotation. Or re- sign their own lefty, Hyun- jin Ryu.
Or do nothing, lean on rookies like Dustin May and a veteran fill- in in the rotation, and still lap the field in their division.
Get the picture? The Dodgers will be fine. Also true: The Cole loss will sting, perhaps all the way through October.
Angels: Trout Island?
The good news for Trout is he figures to be surrounded by more great players very soon. Top prospect Jo Adell is close and fellow stud Brandon Marsh not much more behind, creating a potentially devastating outfield trio. Transcendent shortstop Andrelton Simmons is still around. Owner Arte Moreno is bent on spending again.
But pitching – lack thereof, that is – is what keeps Trout on a path toward becoming the Ernie Banks of his generation.
His postseason career has lasted all of three games, in 2014, and the Cole fit was so natural and so obvious that the Angels were considered consensus favorites to sign him.
The dynamic shifted once lackluster starting pitching figured highly in the Yankees’ six- game elimination in the AL Championship Series. Now Cole is off the board and the Angels will struggle to produce a championship- caliber rotation.
The top free agents left? Southpaws Bumgarner and Dallas Keuchel aren’t great fits in the AL at this point in their careers. Ryu can’t necessarily be counted on to be a 200- inning hoss all the way through the playoffs.
A trade for David Price would make a lot of sense for the Angels and the Red Sox, provided the Angels can handle $ 32 million a year for four seasons, taking Price to age 37. Oh, the Red Sox could help them pay that down, but the Angels likely lack the prospect depth to make that palatable.
Can Dylan Bundy, Andrew Heaney, some portion of Shohei Ohtani and Griffin Canning turn the Angels into contenders? Trout and Angels fans probably can’t bear to ponder the answer.
Rendon: Tony Moneybags
The Friedman skeptics among Dodgers fans will note that the club will likely be fine finishing second in the Rendon sweepstakes ( not a disaster – see above). But the mere specter of the Dodgers in the hunt will make Rendon richer beyond his wildest dreams.
The freshly minted World Series champion seemed determined to test free agency when contract talks with the Nationals stalled in March. As Rendon put up an MVP- caliber season, the Nationals dusted off a few pages from the Bryce Harper playbook and offered him a heavily- deferred, $ 210 million deal just weeks away from free agency.
They knew he’d reject it – and knew it would be a long shot to retain him.
It seems likelier now that Rendon ends up where many expected: With his home- state Rangers in Texas – but not after the Dodgers drive up his price north of $ 250 million.
The silver medalist in this chase? Josh Donaldson, who at 34 will find a market that could top $ 100 million among the Dodgers, Nationals, Braves and probably others.
Lucrative lefties
The old yarn to teach your child to throw left- handed has never been so cogent. With Cole, Zack Wheeler, Jake Odorizzi and even Michael Pineda off the board, a pitching- starved market – and a major league landscape suddenly filled with win- now clubs – will turn their eyes to Bumgarner, Ryu and Keuchel.
Heck, the mid- market Twins are at the moment considered a Ryu option. That status might not last much past Wednesday.
Figure the Dodgers will look hard at Bumgarner and Ryu. The Astros need to replace Cole and Wade Miley and depleted their minor league stock in trading for Zack Greinke. The Brewers are down some dozen players from their wild- card qualifier.
Too many needs. Not enough pitchers. Get ready for some silly- looking deals for 30+ arms.
Scott Boras: Happy New Year
For the better part of this decade, Boras typically has had to wait until deep into January to place his most lucrative clients.
This year, he might pocket commissions off $ 1 billion in salaries by Christmas.
Should Rendon land a deal in the neighborhood of Nolan Arenado’s $ 260 million pact, that will push Boras’ gross to $ 831 million for just Cole, Rendon and Stephen Strasburg, who scored a $ 245 million deal. Worried he won’t hit a billion in one month? Fret not. Some combo of Ryu and outfielders Marcell Ozuna and Nick Castellanos should get him there.
Sure, the last of those might not be inked for a while. But for once, the biggest one got done early – and the tremors will be felt up and down this coast for weeks.