USA TODAY International Edition
Key figures in 2020
The trial may be over, but its results will be felt by politicians long after.
WASHINGTON – The impeachment trial may be over, but the fallout is not.
President Donald Trump’s acquittal Wednesday on two impeachment articles formally ends a four- month saga that stoked partisan divisions in Congress and across the country.
The Senate vote handed him a victory that will enable him to finish his first term and energize his reelection campaign as he asks voters to give him another four years. But the impeachment drama could have a lasting impact on Trump and other players:
The president
Trump can, and in all probability will, celebrate his acquittal on the campaign trail. He has bellowed for months that Democrats used impeachment to try to overturn the 2016 election because they can’t beat him at the polls.
Expect to hear more of that argument as he makes what is essentially an impeachment victory lap at campaign appearances across the country.
Trump is one of only three presidents in U. S. history to be impeached and the only president to seek reelection after being impeached. Democrats will try to turn his impeachment into an issue in November’s election.
Conservative political commentator Scott Jennings predicts the Democrats will be hurt at the polls by the impeachment drama. “This is where Democrats did not want to be – another moment where they promised to take down the president and another failure,” said Jennings, who worked in the White House under President George W. Bush. “I think it has already energized the president’s base.”
Joe Biden
Biden, a Democratic presidential candidate, had a supporting role in the impeachment drama, which was triggered by Trump’s campaign to pressure Ukraine to investigate him.
Though no evidence was uncovered that Biden did anything wrong, “he was contaminated by the Trump impeachment,” said Ross Baker, professor of political science at Rutgers University-New Brunswick.
“Polarized voters are willing to overlook a lot, but it’s safe to say that the Ukraine issue has not helped Joe Biden,” said Kent Syler, a political scientist at Middle Tennessee State University. “His greatest appeal to Democratic primary voters is his perceived strength against Donald Trump. Any issue that impacts that perception could cost him votes and send Democrats looking for alternative candidates like Mike Bloomberg.”
The Biden campaign said the impeachment trial did not harm the former vice president.
Senate races
Impeachment will almost certainly intensify the battle for control of the Senate, where Republicans hold a slim 51- 47 majority. Democrats need to pick up just four seats to take control, and two dozen of the 35 Senate seats on the ballot this year are held by Republicans.
Vulnerable Republican senators, such as Susan Collins of Maine, Cory Gardner of Colorado and Martha McSally of Arizona, will have to explain their votes to constituents. One of a handful of moderates in the Senate, Collins angered Democrats and independents when she voted in 2018 to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh despite sexual assault allegations by three women.
Her vote to acquit Trump probably will shadow her through her reelection campaign and once again put her on the defensive.
“Impeachment is this election’s Brett Kavanaugh hearings,” Syler said.
On the Democratic side, the most vulnerable senator up for reelection is Doug Jones of Alabama.
Jones had a slim chance of winning reelection before the impeachment vote, Jennings said. His vote to convict Trump on both impeachment articles sends that chance “to zero- point- zero percent,” Jennings said.
House races
Thirty- one Democrats represent districts that Trump win in 2016. All but three voted in favor of both articles of impeachment against Trump – a decision that could complicate their path to reelection.
Rep. Jeff Van Drew, whose southern New Jersey district Trump won by 5 points, voted against both articles of impeachment. Then he ditched the Democratic Party and became a Republican. Trump returned the favor by making a campaign appearance in Van Drew’s district and showering him with adjectives such as “courageous” and “principled.”
“He shares our values,” Trump said. He’ll no doubt find other choice words to describe the Democrats who voted to impeach him.