USA TODAY International Edition
For some Democrats, a victory is critical
New Hampshire is next with Sanders in front
MILFORD, N. H. – Move over, Iowa: Your moment is done.
Now that the state’s disastrous caucus night is in the past, the race for the Democratic nomination has arrived in New Hampshire, which holds its firstin- the- nation primary Tuesday.
The delay in caucus returns initially muddled the primary’s post- Iowa outlook. But with the Iowa picture somewhat clearer, we can say Bernie Sanders sailed into New Hampshire as the front- runner here with a popularvote victory under his belt, Pete Buttigieg arrived with a surge of unexpected momentum, Elizabeth Warren is looking for a validating win, and Joe Biden is in need of a rebound.
Here’s the momentum tracker six
days before the New Hampshire Democratic Primary:
Bernie Sanders: Running ahead out of Iowa
Sanders flew into New Hampshire on Tuesday showing strength by winning Iowa’s popular vote in the final caucus realignment. He trailed Buttigieg by the slimmest of margins in state delegate equivalents.
It wasn’t the dominant win some had predicted and his camp coveted. In recent weeks, Sanders supporters looked at back- to- back wins in Iowa and New Hampshire as real possibilities. Every presidential candidate who has won both Iowa and New Hampshire has gone on to secure their party’s nomination.
But while that dream scenario might be dead, Sanders still has an opportunity for a decisive win in New Hampshire.
On his first day of campaigning in New Hampshire, Sanders touted his status as the top vote- getter in Iowa.
“I’m very proud to tell you that ( Monday) night in Iowa we received more votes in the first and second round than any other candidate,” Sanders told about 1,000 people at a rally in Milford.
“For some reason in Iowa, they’re having a little bit of trouble counting votes. But I am confident that here in New Hampshire, I know they’ll be able to count your votes on election night. And when you count those votes, I am going to win here in New Hampshire.”
Sanders, a self- described democratic socialist senator from Vermont, has been on the rise since December as he recaptured much of the base of liberal and young voters who made him a viable candidate in 2016. His steady surge has seemingly come at the expense of Warren, the other Democrat angling for the party’s progressive lane, who came in third in Iowa.
Sanders won New Hampshire in the 2016 presidential primary by 22 percentage points. With a crowded Democratic field this year, no one expects him to win by that margin next week.
But expectations are still high. The Real Clear Politics average of polls has Sanders ahead in New Hampshire by 9 percentage points. After his showing in Iowa, anything less than a first- place finish in New Hampshire would probably be a disappointment.
A victory in New Hampshire could make Sanders the favorite in Nevada, where he has strong ties to unions, performs well with Hispanic voters and is polling closely behind Biden.
Come Super Tuesday on March 3, the Sanders campaign has put a major emphasis on winning delegate- rich California. A win in New Hampshire would follow the path he needs to do just that and prove to lingering skeptics that indeed he can win the Democratic nomination.
Pete Buttigieg: Wind in his sails
The former South Bend, Indiana, mayor declared himself victorious in Iowa even before partial results came in Tuesday.
And while the dust hasn’t settled, it appears he will finish at least in the top two, if not maybe first in total state delegate equivalents by the slimmest of margins. The feat has solidified Buttigieg as a true contender, something that seemed improbable a year ago.
Perhaps more than any candidate, Buttigieg – whose campaign went all- in in the Hawkeye State – needed a win in Iowa to catapult his candidacy into the other three early voting states and beyond.
It seems he delivered, generating the type of momentum he needs to try to put himself in contention in New Hampshire. He received a quick boost right when he arrived here Tuesday with Nashua Mayor Jim Donchess endorsing his candidacy.
He also got a post- Iowa bounce, according to a new daily tracking poll released late Wednesday from Suffolk University/ Boston Globe/ WBZ- TV. It found Buttigieg has the support of 19% of likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire, up 8 points from Monday. He still trails Sanders ( 25%), who topped him with the popular vote in Iowa, but is ahead of Biden ( 12%) and Warren ( 11%).
In Iowa, Buttigieg found a middle lane with the segment of Iowa caucusgoers seemingly wary of the more liberal policies of Sanders and Warren but seeking a fresh face and an outsider, the opposite of the establishment Biden. It appears Buttigieg enjoyed a late surge and outperformed his polling.
Buttigieg performed particularly well in rural counties and some blue- collar eastern Iowa counties where Biden was expected to do well.
“What a night! Because tonight an improbable hope became an undeniable reality,” Buttigieg said Monday in Iowa to chants of his last name.
Now as Buttigieg campaigns in New Hampshire, he needs another strong outcome – in part because it’s hard to see how he can compete in Nevada or South Carolina, where he has struggled with black voters, if he does not pick up steam over the coming weeks.
Although he does not enjoy the neighbor advantage of Sanders and Warren, Buttigieg has a strong ground organization in New Hampshire and has impressed with the size of his crowds here. He picked up one of the state’s biggest endorsements last month in U. S. Rep. Annie Kuster.
Even if he does carry New Hampshire, questions will still linger over Buttigieg’s ability to garner support among African American and Latino voters as the primary moves on to states much more diverse than Iowa and New Hampshire.
But if he can pull off an uphill win here, he could be in for a major bounce nationally.
Elizabeth Warren: Trying to find traction
Warren will probably finish third in Iowa, which would leave her without the momentum of Sanders and Buttigieg and in serious need of a win in New Hampshire.
On the campaign trail in New Hampshire, the Massachusetts senator has sought to frame the Iowa finish as a “three- way race at the top.”
But with 97% of precincts reporting, it appeared Warren might have won none of Iowa’s 99 counties, making her the only top- tier candidate who did not. Even fifth- place Klobuchar won some counties.
Perhaps more than any other candidate, the fate of Warren’s candidacy now rests on New Hampshire.
Warren entered the presidential primary last year with high expectations in New Hampshire, which overlaps with the Boston media market, where she is most well- known. Past Massachusetts senators who have won the Democratic nomination have won the Granite State on their path to victory.
But the latest Suffolk University poll has Warren fourth in New Hampshire with 11%.
During a campaign stop in Nashua on Wednesday, Warren said her campaign is positioned for a long primary fight.
“We’re out here fighting for every vote in New Hampshire, and after this, we’ve got 55 more states and territories,” she said. “We already have on- thefield operations in 31 states and 1,000 people. This is an operation that is built for the long haul and I’m loving every minute of it.”
But unlike Biden, it’s hard to see where Warren can gain momentum heading into Super Tuesday if she goes 0- 2 in the first two states. It would force her into arguably make- or- break situations in Nevada and South Carolina, where she’s struggled to show traction in polls.
New Hampshire does have a history of surprises. It famously made Bill Clinton the “Comeback Kid” when he finished second place during a turbulent stretch of his 1992 campaign. And just when it looked like Barack Obama had a straight shot to the nomination with his 2008 win in Iowa, New Hampshire Democrats gave the victory to Hillary Clinton instead.
Joe Biden: Looking for a rebound
Biden didn’t need an outright win in Iowa, but his distant fourth place was a disappointing showing for his campaign and raises questions about the enthusiasm around his candidacy.
The former vice president led Iowa polls for months, but by caucus day, he wasn’t considered the favorite. His campaign and a pro- Biden Super PAC pumped significant resources in the state in the weeks leading up to Tuesday’s vote. In the end, it appears Biden will end up losing by double- digit percentage points.
The only good news for Biden: The outrage over the delayed caucus results might have overshadowed his woes.
It’s true that Biden faced some disadvantages in Iowa: Democratic caucusgoers skew more liberal than their general election counterparts, and Iowa is overwhelmingly white, leaving Biden without a significant part of his base: black voters. The caucus format, which attracts party activists, was also not suited for Biden.
But Biden, who has for months led national polls, struggled so mightily that he could risk losing some centrist voters to the rising Buttigieg and billionaire former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, who is sitting out the first four states to focus on Super Tuesday.
The Biden campaign sought to tamp down expectations on the night of the Iowa caucuses, with Biden telling supporters in an email that Iowa is the “first big step, but one of many steps to go, of many delegates yet to still be awarded in this Democratic Primary.”
Campaigning in New Hampshire on Tuesday, Biden tried to put a positive spin on the results, insisting his campaign had a “good night” in Iowa. But on Wednesday, he acknowledged the results have been a blow to his campaign.
“I’m not going to sugarcoat it. We took a gut punch in Iowa,” Biden said at a campaign stop in Somersworth, New Hampshire. “The whole process took a gut punch. But this isn’t the first time in my life I’ve been knocked down.”
Most observers view Biden’s path to victory to go through South Carolina, where his support among African American voters has given him a large lead in polls. He hopes to use a strong performance there as a springboard into Super Tuesday when voters in 14 states head to the polls.
Biden faces an uphill battle to top Sanders – and maybe now even Buttigieg – in New Hampshire. And unless he manages a better showing than Iowa, the narrative surrounding his campaign will only grow louder. If he can rebound in New Hampshire, it sets him up to compete in Nevada, where polls have found him narrowly ahead of Sanders.
If he loses in New Hampshire by a wide margin again, Biden will be limping into Nevada and face heightened pressure to produce a victory. At the very least, in New Hampshire, he needs to avoid a second straight fourth- place finish.
The Democratic presidential primary is a marathon, one that takes 1,991 delegates to secure the nomination. But with a contest that’s so unsettled – even more so because of the dragged- out Iowa results – what happens in New Hampshire could shape the race even more than usual.