USA TODAY International Edition
Expert: Virus will ‘ be around a long time’
Timeline of US arrival shifts, but some say response will stay same
They both died in their homes in February, several days before COVID- 19 was known to have killed anyone in the U. S. No one knew it was the coronavirus that killed them – until now.
Public health officials in Santa Clara County, California, on Wednesday provided more details about two residents who died because of COVID- 19, one a 57year- old woman who perished at home Feb. 6, the other one a 69- year- old man who died from the disease Feb. 17.
The cause of death in both instances was discovered through autopsies and confirmed by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The fatalities were recorded several days before two deaths reported in Washington state Feb. 26, believed to be the first ones in the nation from the coronavirus.
Because neither of the Santa Clara victims had a recent history of travel or contact with COVID- 19 patients, the new discovery indicates the virus was likely circulating in the U. S. earlier than thought, at least by early January.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom calls the discovery “important forensic information.”
As such, the revelation will doubtlessly inspire much study and debate, but some epidemiology experts say it won’t have a major effect on the response to the virus. Scientists have suspected for some time that the coronavirus emerged in China before the oftenreported time frame of sometime in December.
Dr. John Swartzberg, clinical professor emeritus at UC Berkeley and an expert on infectious diseases, said new data that has yet to be confirmed points to October or even September.
With the large amount of travel between West Coast cities and destinations in China before the disease grew into a pandemic, Swartzberg said it’s not surprising cases of the new virus would soon develop stateside and go unnoticed.
“This occurred right in the middle of our influenza season in the West Coast,” Swartzberg said. “Since disease from SARS- CoV- 2 presents like influenza in many cases, you can see how it would be confused between the two, and it would have been ignored since nobody even thought of it then.”
Swartzberg does not believe a quick end to the shutdown is in the cards. For one, he said, it’s not clear yet that serological tests measuring antibodies on those who have been infected with the coronavirus are accurate, and how long any protection would last. He also doesn’t see the numbers adding up favorably.
“Let’s assume 5% of the population has been infected, and let’s assume they’re immune,” Swartzberg said. “It tells us 95% of the population is still susceptible to this virus, and that tells us that it’s going to be around a long time.”
Dr. Neil Schachter, medical director of the Respiratory Care Department at Mount Sinai Medical Center in New York, compares the findings to learning about how people came to America before Columbus arrived: It’s enlightening, but it does not set a path forward.
“Somebody has to write the history of what happened,” Schachter said. “But I think from the public health point of view, the direction that we’re going in now is what’s going to be most important.’’